Prediction market provider Polymarket filed an application on Wednesday to list parlays in sports event contracts in the United States, according to a self-certification report to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Polymarket filed a list of “combinatorial outcome contracts” on Wednesday, describing these event contracts – the official term for prediction markets – as a combination of two or more underlying contracts. Furthermore, all the underlying contracts had to be settled for the specific outcome set by the user.
“Each outcome must be met for the contract to settle at $1.00. The contract is set at $1.00 if and only if each leg is met. If a single leg is not met, the contract will be settled at $0.00, regardless of the outcome of any remaining unsettled legs,” the filing said.
Because the contract is self-certified, Polymarket is not so much asking for explicit permission to list these contracts as it is telling the CFTC that it intends to list these products. The document said it would list them “no sooner than May 21, 2026.”
Another exhibit was filed, but Polymarket asked the CFTC to keep that exhibit confidential because of possible trade secrets or commercial information, according to another filing.
Exchange traded funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission, which does not directly oversee prediction markets, is examining what an exchange-traded fund (ETF) around prediction markets might look like, Chairman Paul Atkins said in a statement Wednesday.
ETFs increase capital formation and investor choice, he said, noting that ETF assets have tripled in the past seven years.
“New products raise new questions, and I appreciate the willingness fund sponsors have shown to delay the effectiveness of a number of new ETFs, including ETFs with event contracts, while we consider the implications,” he said. “To ensure we do this in a transparent and thoughtful manner, I have asked staff to seek input from the public on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.”
Prediction markets have received enormous scrutiny in Congress and the courts over the past few months, especially as they have expanded into sports leagues. State regulators and gaming companies argue that sports-related prediction markets infringe on states’ rights to regulate and tax gaming products, since prediction market providers are regulated at the federal level.
The CFTC, for its part, maintains that these products are properly supervised by it under the Commodity Exchange Act. The US Supreme Court is generally expected to take up the issue at some point.
Meanwhile, lawmakers are also reviewing the prediction markets, though it’s unclear whether a bill will be introduced to address them at this point.
Read more: Prediction markets companies take heat in Senate Commerce hearing scrutiny increase
