Bitcoin is down 3% in Asian morning trade, holding near $77,000 as markets brace for a week full of macro catalysts. The move appears to be driven more by caution than a shift in sentiment.
In a note to CoinDesk, Singapore-based Enflux, a market maker, said traders are reluctant to push bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate decision and a cluster of data releases later this week, including GDP, PCE inflation and the employment cost index. Together, these prints will shape expectations for when, or if, the Fed may begin cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.
For now, the biggest limitation is oil. Brent crude remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and raising the bar for a dovish signal from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to Enflux, the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not come quickly enough to affect politics in the near term. This combination has effectively priced in rate cuts for June (Polymarket punters are giving a 95% chance of ‘no change’) and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
In that environment, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels. The cryptocurrency is trading about 4% below its short-term owner cost basis near $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction.
Moving decisively above that would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-fueled inflation will prove temporary. Without that, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into Thursday’s data releases, with a sharper move more likely tied to the macro prints than the Fed statement itself.
Looking beyond this week, a less visible force could also shape bitcoin’s next move. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand.
Publicly traded BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while also selling off parts of their treasuries to turn to hosting AI data centers – a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot point could, in theory, slow down sales.
When demand for computing is high, miners have both the incentive and the funding to continue building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund investment and service debt.
But if OpenAI’s miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with these expectations, the dynamics become more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven sales over time, removing a source of supply.
The problem is timing: selling pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker technology and risk appetite is likely to bring the crypto market down, while any relief from slower miner sales will come later.
In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux’s broader point. The market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving those that matter most to the price.
For now, it is keeping bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.
