Mow is not the first to argue that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has changed. After bitcoin surged to an all-time high before the April 2024 halving, several analysts suggested growing institutional demand following the launch of US spot bitcoin ETFs may change the pattern that has historically followed each halving. However, others argued that it was too early to conclude that the cycle had changed.
$55,000 more likely
Not everyone agrees. Several analysts have recently argued that bitcoin is either close to a market bottom or still has to fall further, although they rely on different indicators and models.
CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently wrote that if you were “wondering how much lower bitcoin is likely to fall, the answer, at least according to a historically accurate contrarian indicator, is not much.”
This indicator is based on bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, which represents about a year, is very close to falling below the 100-week mark, forming what analysts call a “bearish cross.” Historically, similar signals coincided with market bottoms, leading some analysts to view the pattern as bullish.
Recently, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, said that he thinks the bottom is more likely at $55,000 and not until somewhere between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the BitMex co-founder, took a more bearish stance, saying that bitcoin would bottom out at around $40,000 within the next six months.
