Last year was my worst year playing baseball for OutKick. It wasn’t terrible by any means, but I never really found my footing and I never went on a hot streak. I feel like I’m in the middle of a hot streak, or maybe the start of one, as I’ve hit five straight no-hitters and seven of my last eight games. Baseball is typically my most profitable sport, so I hope we fill our bankroll this year.
The Kansas City Royals have been a bit of a disappointment this season. They are just 19-23 on the year and have lost twice as many road games as they have won, 6-13.
Overall, it looks like the team is struggling to score. They are 22nd in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.1 runs per inning. match. It’s not terrible by any means. Their batting average isn’t terrible; they are 15th in the league, which is right in the middle.
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo delivers a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on April 20, 2026. (Denny Medley/Imagn Images)
Their pitching hasn’t been great, but one guy who has been pretty reliable is Seth Lugo. If you have read my posts before, you know that I have made a lot of money from Lugo starters. He is 1-2 for the season with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has made eight starts this season and two of them were bad. One was against the Los Angeles Angels, where he allowed seven earned runs over 6.1 innings. In his last outing, he allowed four runs on seven hits over four innings.
It will be the second time he faces the Chicago White Sox this season. In the first outing, he went 6.1 innings and allowed two runs, one of which was earned. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in a game against the White Sox in 41.1 innings of his career.
The Chicago White Sox are an early season surprise. I live in Chicago and I don’t think most fans or residents here thought they would be this good. Good, I suppose, is a relative term in this situation. They are under .500 entering today’s game at 8-9 p.m., but they have a winning record at home at 10-9. Their offseason signing, Munetaka Murakami, has been a very good power hitter with 15 homers already this year. However, the team is only hitting .231 for the year, so there should be reason to be pessimistic about the team’s future.
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Bobby Witt Jr. slides past Cal Raleigh’s tag at home plate to score in the seventh inning at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington, July 3, 2025. The Kansas City Royals won 3-2 over the Seattle Mariners. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Wednesday’s starter for the White Sox is Noah Schultz. His numbers aren’t great at 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Not all of his starts have been bad, though. He has made just two home starts, going 10.1 innings and allowing five earned runs. I have some concerns about his mechanics as he has already walked 16 guys in 25 innings. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher, which isn’t ideal in Chicago, where wind can be a significant factor. He has never met the royals.
I bet on the Royals the last time Lugo took the mound against them. They lost the match 2-0. I’m running it back here as I’m not impressed with Schultz. Plus, this would give the White Sox a sweep, and as bad as the Royals have been, I don’t see them allowing themselves to get swept. Give me Royals at a very reasonable price of -120.
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Chicago White Sox’s Munetaka Murakami celebrates his two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the seventh inning in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 22, 2026. (Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo)
Plus, I’ll take the Lugo prop that keeps on giving – under 2.5 earned runs allowed. That’s -118 and he’s been that good against the White Sox in the past. I will back Lugo again and hope we can get a 2-0 win for the Royals tonight.
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