Wall Street brokerage Bernstein expects forecast market volumes to reach about $1 trillion by 2030 as the sector evolves from niche betting to broad-based “information markets” spanning sports, crypto, politics and economics.
Volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on track to reach about $240 billion by 2026, implying about 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade, the report said. Activity has already accelerated in 2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi registering combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion.
“Increased regulatory clarity at the federal level expands the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets enables global liquidity, long-tail event creation and institutional participation,” wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Prediction markets have risen from a niche corner of crypto and academic experiments to a rapidly growing segment of global trading activity in a matter of years.
Volumes have risen alongside major news cycles, notably the 2024 US election, while platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded access beyond politics to sports, crypto and macroeconomic events.
The combination of clearer US regulatory footing, improved user experience and the integration of blockchain-based liquidity has accelerated adoption and pushed the sector towards mainstream relevance
The report attributed the growth to improving federal regulatory clarity, which expands access beyond fragmented state-level rules of the game, along with blockchain-based infrastructure that enables global liquidity and rapid creation of new event contracts.
Sports currently account for around 62% of volumes, benefiting from lower effective rates compared to traditional online sportsbooks. But the analysts expect that share to fall to around 31% by 2030 as crypto-linked contracts and macro, political and economic events gain traction. Institutional participation is also expected to grow, particularly for hedging event-driven risks.
$10.8 billion in revenue
Bernstein analysts estimate that industry revenues could grow from about $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, reaching about $10.8 billion in 2030 at current tariff rates. Even with significant fee compression, they see the potential for a multi-billion dollar revenue pool.
Distribution is emerging as an important competitive moat. The report pointed to Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders, capitalizing on their combined tens of thousands of users.
Robinhood has already built $350 million in annual revenue from prediction markets and is moving toward owning exchange infrastructure, while Coinbase entered via Kalshi with nationwide access to more than 1,000 contracts, the report added.
The broker has an outperform rating on both Coinbase and Robinhood.
Read more: Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to play the predictable market boom
