With the standoff over the frozen Iran war threatening a global economic meltdown, Washington and Tehran have scaled back their efforts to agree on a comprehensive peace deal and are now seeking a limited pact that postpones the tougher issues.
Here’s what we know about the proposals being debated and where they leave the major disputes behind the war unresolved:
At what stage are the discussions?
Sources in both camps have said the latest peace efforts are aimed at an interim memorandum of understanding to halt the war and allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while they discuss a more comprehensive agreement.
The proposed framework would unfold in three phases: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement.
Gaps remain even on this limited plan, sources have said. Any broader deal would have to address intractable disputes such as Iran’s nuclear program. The last agreement on the nuclear program – reached in 2015 and torn up by Trump in 2018 – took years of negotiations between large teams of technical experts.
What are the main problems?
Ending the war – US President Donald Trump says the war is coming to an end and can be resolved by Iran accepting terms. Iran does not trust him or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iranian officials point to their decision to strike in February despite a ceasefire that ended an earlier US-Israeli air campaign last year. Both conflicts were launched unannounced during efforts to resolve issues diplomatically. Tehran also cites Israeli attacks during cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon as reasons to believe a cease-fire will not last and wants some form of external guarantee.
Hormuz and the Gulf Blockade – Tehran sees its control of Hormuz and Washington views its blockade of Iranian ports as their main leverage. But both sides are hurting. Iran’s economy is facing disaster, and its inability to export oil could mean an inventory crisis and production cuts. Its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, is causing a worldwide energy crisis months before the US midterm elections. Iran wants formal recognition of its control over Hormuz, although this would be opposed internationally.
Nuclear – The US believes that Iran wants to build a nuclear bomb. Iran has always denied this, saying its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. The focus is on its enrichment of uranium, which generates fuel for nuclear power but can also make material for a warhead. Washington wants Iran to give up its right to enrich for 20 years and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Iran wants its right to enrichment recognized. A deal may eventually be possible with a year-long moratorium on the enrichment and export of its highly enriched uranium, but that still looks a long way off.
Ballistic Missile – A main demand of the US before the war was that Iran limit the range of its ballistic missiles so that they could not reach Israel. It says its war has succeeded in degrading Iran’s missile stockpile, and it is not clear whether it will continue to insist on range limits in a larger peace deal. Iran has always refused to discuss its ballistic missiles, saying its right to conventional weapons cannot be on the table and that it still has a large arsenal.
Sanctions and frozen assets – Iran’s economy has been hit by sanctions for years, which contributed to the nationwide unrest in January. Tehran badly needs them lifted and frozen assets released. It also wants reparations for war damages, although there now appears to be no chance that the US will agree to this, and it is not clear whether it would stick to the demand as a condition of a deal.
Iran has previously said that Israel’s war against its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon must be included in any peace deal. Israel rejects this, and it is not clear how far Iran will insist on it in future negotiations.
What do Israel and the Gulf states think?
Israel is not directly involved in the peace efforts. Eager to continue the war, Netanyahu would also be loathe to subject Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah to a deal between Washington and Tehran.
The Gulf states do not agree on how to end the conflict. They have been targets of Iran throughout the war and would oppose a deal that would allow Iran to keep hitting them or impose control over the Strait of Hormuz – their main trade route. They may fear that Washington will not prioritize their needs and concerns in the negotiations.
Can European states, China or Russia play a role?
European states have their own sanctions against Iran and want to be involved in any deal aimed at resolving the nuclear dispute. France, Germany and the UK were closely involved in the 2015 agreement. European countries have offered to take a role in ensuring free passage in Hormuz after the war.
China is a major buyer of Gulf oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may hope that it will agree to be a guarantor in any deal, but it has given no indication that it would want such a role.
Iran may also want Russia to play a role in any eventual deal on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, although it is not clear whether Washington will accept that.
