Bitcoin funding rates are flashing one of the most bearish position signals in years, even as spot prices continue to grind higher.
Funding rates have been running close to minus 4% year-over-year, James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, said during a panel at Consensus Miami 2026. That means paying long to hold exposure, a rare setup that points to heavy short positioning.
“The loans are being paid, which is something of a rarity,” Aitchison said. “On a 30-day basis, the lowest it’s been in this decade.”
The setup reflects a broader derivative disruption. Bitcoin funding rates hit their most negative levels since 2023 in April, even as BTC pushed through $75,000 at the time. Aitchison said similar conditions have historically preceded positive returns over 30- to 365-day periods.
Bitcoin has risen from around $60,000 to the low $80,000s at the time of writing. The move has forced traders to reassess whether old crypto-native signals still work in a market increasingly shaped by ETFs, basis trades and Wall Street distribution.
Spot bitcoin ETF demand has held through the draw. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $1.6 billion so far this month, even as short-term holders sold.
That robustness has made ETF holders central to the current market structure. Dan Blackmore, chief commercial officer at Glassnode, said bitcoin is moving into a new regime as volatility decreases and allocations become more strategic.
“We are witnessing the early going of the Wall Street machine and its impact on the crypto market,” Backmore said.
Options accelerate this shift. Open interest in IBIT options topped Deribit in April, indicating a migration of bitcoin derivatives activity to regulated US venues. Morgan Stanley’s bitcoin ETF opened last month, adding another major asset management platform to the market.
Panelists were divided on whether the four-year cycle still matters. Michael Terpin, author of “Bitcoin Supercycle,” said bitcoin could still trade lower before a major 2028-2029 supply shock. Others argued that the halving cycle is losing steam as bitcoin becomes a TradFi asset.
The calls at the end of the year reflected the division. Terpin and Backmore said bitcoin may not reach a new high this year. Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Labs, said $250,000 is possible. Aitchison said $150,000 is a reasonable target if rate cuts return.
