There are also signs of seller fatigue and believer accumulation. As seen in previous market bottoms, BTC can find a floor when few sellers remain and when accumulation by conviction holders increases. This plays out with about 45% of long-term holder supply at a loss, per data from Checkonchain, with levels associated with previous market bottoms. This suggests that many of the sellers are already out, leaving only convicted holders who are not only unable to withstand the volatility, but may also be adding to their positions. This shows up in the data, where the BTC supply held by long-term holders has risen to an all-time high in recent weeks. Meanwhile, on-chain movements of longer-held BTC have slowed from last year, easing earlier pressure.
The situation today
BTC has been in a bear market since October, battling a rotating set of headwinds largely unrelated to bitcoin’s underlying properties. The question now is what happens when that headwind changes to a tailwind. With money supply growth accelerating, sentiment and momentum may soon reverse.
There are also signs of seller fatigue and believer accumulation. As seen in previous market bottoms, BTC can find a floor when few sellers remain and when accumulation by conviction holders increases. This plays out with about 45% of long-term holder supply at a loss, per data from Checkonchain, with levels associated with previous market bottoms. This suggests that many of the sellers are already out, leaving only convicted holders who are not only unable to withstand the volatility, but may also be adding to their positions. This shows up in the data, where the BTC supply held by long-term holders has risen to an all-time high in recent weeks. Meanwhile, on-chain movements of longer-held BTC have slowed from last year, easing earlier pressure.
