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“Bear Bets” are real bets that Chris “The Bear” Fallica actually makes.
The Belmont Stakes is finally upon us.
The 158th Belmont Stakes will take place at Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing renovations at the iconic Belmont Park.
The post time is set to 7:04 PM ET on Saturday, June 6, and the race will be televised on FOX.
I firmly believe that we are in for another memorable weekend. And when it comes to betting on the race, I’ve got you covered.
So let’s jump into my playing card and thoughts on Saturday’s big race.
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1. Vitruvian Man: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Coach: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
This is the longest shot on the board for a reason. They were nowhere to be found vs. So Happy and Potente in the Santa Anita Derby and will not be found here. But the connections will definitely have a good time.
2. Powershift: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Coach: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
He ran a huge second to Emerging Market in his debut and predictably regressed in his second start, which came in the Tampa Bay Derby. A scramble to break the even-money Derby weekend maiden has resulted in Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher entering here. Although I don’t think he can win, he definitely affects the flow of the race. He will be one of only a few horses – Growth Equity most likely the other – in the lead. The faster the pace, the more it helps Repole’s other entrant, the ML favorite Renegade. Expect him to hang around for 3/4 or a mile and then be pulled in by the big boys.
3. Chief Wallabee: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Coach: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
I thought this was the best 3-year-old in the country going into the Derby, and a poor ride in the Derby, despite adding blinkers, resulted in a fourth-place finish. I still think this could be a potential monster in the second half of the year, but at some point he has to win. He finished behind Constitution in both starts at Florida. Despite a huge post advantage in the Derby, he finished behind Renegade there. Is there a chance Junior Alvarado has him a little closer to the lead if the pace softens? He should have a much easier and cleaner ride out of this with only nine horses in the field. But I’m worried if things aren’t going perfectly. Is he the type of horse where every time something goes a little wrong, it results in another sub-finish? This race will tell a lot about what kind of horse Chief is now and can be in the future.
4. Renegade: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Coach: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
He ran the best race in the Derby, but was just beaten by Golden Tempo. I didn’t think he had a chance off the rail, but Irad Ortiz Jr. did an incredible job of finding a turn and getting him outside and almost being the ultimate recipient of the pace collapse. He’s the rightful favorite here, but like Golden Tempo, are the slower factions likely to hinder him? I think he has a quicker footwork than Golden Tempo, which we saw in the Arkansas Derby and Remsen. So he might be a little more likely to win without the tempo meltdown. The jockey and trainer both know how to win this race. He has the most recent preferred path to Belmont success — run in the Derby, skip the Preakness, then bounce back five weeks later in the Belmont. There are people out there who believe that the horse cannot lose on Saturday. I don’t want to go that far, but I think he will very likely run in that exact and will construct some tickets around that line of thinking.
5. Ottinho: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Someone had to be next to Further Ado in the Blue Grass. And “Take, you are, Ottino.” He hasn’t run a race close enough to compete for a win here, and Chad Brown knows he needs to step up in a big way, but can he grind his way around the field for third or fourth – which is a handsome payday? Unlikely, but possibly
6. Growth in equity: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Manny Franco
His figures have gone the right way every start, but he still looks a touch below the Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Commandment group. I’m not sure handling Rudy Rodriguez Withers winner Talk to Me Jimmy with ease in a five-horse Peter Pan means he’s a real contender here. I think he’s a bit of a de facto rabbit for the other Klaravich horse, Emerging Market. I expect him to be in the lead and push the pace set by Powershift to his insides and make sure Emerging Market isn’t too close to a hot pace like he was in the Derby. He won’t win, but will have a big influence on who does.
7. Bid: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Coach: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez
He never quite got it off in the Derby as he was rough at the start and then hung wide. I don’t know why I have a negative view of his chances though. John Velazquez is his fourth different jockey in four races. Did that Florida triple of wins in the Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby take too much out of him? Will his running style and flow of the race allow him to get there with his late running and grinding style? Both of his grade stake wins were by a nose and a neck. If you still believe, you’ll get a prize you could only dream of after he had five straight wins coming into the Derby.
8. Emerging Markets: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Pratt
It’s the one that has my attention. Before the Derby, I felt that either he or Chief Wallabee would win the Belmont, and after they ran fourth and tenth in the Derby and skipped the Preakness to point this out, I feel even better about my thought process. I expected Emerging Market to run better than he did in the Derby, but I also didn’t count on him being too close to a fast pace, getting stuck inside and then losing a shoe during the race. But it’s the Derby and things like that happen. I expect a much better ride here and we should get a price relatively close to the 6-1 ML. It would be fitting for Saratoga native Chad Brown to get a Belmont win in the last edition of the race here at Spa. One of them and my top pick just off the pace.
9. Golden Tempo: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Coach: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
This is a great story as Cherie DeVaux became the first female trainer to win the Derby and now looks set to become the second female trainer in four years to win the Belmont Stakes. He has improved form in all five of his starts but I still think he is at the mercy of the pace in front of him. He caught fast fractions in the Derby and he, Ocelli and Renegade benefited from that, taking the top three places in the trifecta. He likely won’t get the same setup Saturday as he did on Derby day. And while there’s no reason to expect him not to run his race, I think a win is a little out of reach. I will use the stretch runner underneath.
Suggested ways to bet The Belmont (adjust your dollar amounts to match your budget)
$10 Exacta Key Box 8/4-3 $40
$5 Exacta Key Box 8/7-9 $20
$10 Win-Place 8 $10
$2 Trifecta 8/3-4/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$2 Trifecta 3-4/8/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$1 Trifecta 8/2-3-4-7-9/3-4 $8
Historical Notes
If a horse other than Golden Tempo wins the Belmont Stakes, it will mean that 23 different horses will have won the last 24 Triple Crown races. Sovereignty last year would be the only horse in that span to win multiple Triple Crown races in that span (2019-present).
Only one of the last 11 Triple Crown races has been won by the favorite (Journalism 2025 Preakness). Seven of the last 11 were won by the fourth pick or longer.
If Golden Tempo does not finish in the money, it will mark the first time since 2010 that the favorite has finished out of the money in all three Triple Crown races. In 2010, Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky finished sixth, Preakness favorite Super Saver finished eighth and Belmont favorite Ice Box finished ninth. 2026 Derby favorite Further Ado finished 11th and Preakness favorite Taj Mahal finished 10th. The last Belmont favorite to finish out of the money was Exaggerator, who finished 11th in 2016.
Four of the last six Belmont runners-up were trained by Todd Pletcher (2024 Mainframe, 2023 Forte, 2022 Nest, 2020 Dr. Post). During that time, Pletcher also won the 2022 Belmont with Mo Donegal.
Renegade and Powershift continue the trend of Todd Pletcher’s Belmont Stakes starters having only one word in their name. Each of his last eight Belmont runners had only one word: 2026 Renegade, 2026 Powershift, 2025 Uncaged, 2025 Crudo, 2024 Mindframe, 2024 Antiquarian, 2024 Protective and 2023 Forte.
None of Brad Cox’s last 16 Triple Crown starters have finished better than third (2024 Preakness Catching Freedom and 2023 Derby Angel of Empire). The last time Cox had a horse crack the exact one in a Triple Crown race was 2021, when Essential Quality won the Belmont.
The four Todd Pletcher-trained and Irad Ortiz Jr.-ridden Belmont runners have run either first (2022 Mo Donegal) or second (2024 Mindframe, 2023 Forte, 2020 Dr. Post). Irad has the mountain on Renegade on Saturday.
