By Francisco Rodrigues (all times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to below $67,000 as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove investors out of risk assets and into the US dollar.
As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries about a fifth of global oil supplies.
Shipping rates for crude and liquefied natural gas tankers rose after vessels were targeted in the region and several operators suspended activity. Brent crude rose more than 13% in the past five days, while freight costs for large oil tankers hit record levels.
The shock hits the financial markets. The dollar index ( DXY ) rose nearly 1% and U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors moved away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face renewed inflationary pressures from rising fuel costs.
Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 earlier this week, but reversed course when the conflict erupted. Cryptocurrency prices have nevertheless remained range-bound despite the escalation.
The first US attack on Iran over the weekend pushed bitcoin and ether lower, triggering about $300 million in long liquidations, but QCP Capital analysts described the deleveraging as orderly compared to previous episodes earlier this year.
The analysts added that options markets showed a brief spike in short-term volatility, although positioning suggested traders were prepared for weekend risk.
“Recalling the previous US attack on Iran last June (also a weekend), BTC broke below $100k when the news broke only to trade back over Monday, then rallied to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts wrote. “While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action may suggest early signs of history repeating itself.”
Options flows show buyers positioning for a potential rally beyond the $70,000 mark. It suggests that investors are looking for a rebound this month after the market’s severe downturn.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the conflict, with conflicting statements from Iranian and US officials about whether the waterway is closed. US President Donald Trump has said the war is expected to last “four to five weeks”. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- March 3: The SolCex mobile app is launched on Google Play and Apple’s App Store.
- Macro
- 3 March at 05.00: Eurozone inflation rate YoY flash for February (Prev 1.7%); Core year/year (previously 2.2%)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 3: Analpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), premarket, $0.19
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- ShapeShift DAO votes to appoint PTT as Tokenomics Workstream Leader for a 6-month period, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
- Decentraland DAO votes to explore the automatic execution of approved proposals and soft signer key time limits while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 3% from 16 ET Monday at $66,918.56 (24 hours: +0.57%)
- ETH is down 4.04% at $1,959.34 (24 hours: unchanged)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% to 1,927.49 (24h: +0.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.89% to 99.25
- Gold futures are down 0.30% at $5,278.60
- Silver futures are down 4.65% at $84.18
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.06% at 56,279.05
- The Hang Seng closed up 1.12% at 25,768.08
- The FTSE 100 is down 2.76% to 10,478.54
- The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen 3.49% to 5,777.18
- The DJIA closed down 0.15% at 48,904.78 on Monday
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.82% at 3,741.78
- US 10-year Treasury is up 9 bps to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.83% at 6,762.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.30% at 24,448.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.74% at 48,104.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.81%
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.14
- Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
- CME Futures open interest: 104,220 BTC
- BTC Priced in Gold: 15.8 oz
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.46%
Technical Analysis
- BTC/USD weekly remains technically capped below the 200-week EMA, with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) at 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming a sideways grind between $65,000 and $70,000.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Monday at $185.24 (+5.34%), -5.64% at $174.80 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), -5.66% at $20.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), -4.97% at $8.98
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.43 (+0.86%), -5.11% at $15.59
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), -3.76% at $15.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), -4.83% at $10.04
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), -4.23% at $38.72
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), -6.57% at $89.82
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), -2.69% at $32.90
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), -4.42% at $131.56
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), -4.24% at $8.36
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), -5.41% at $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $458.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.24 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.27M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $38.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.67 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Dismisses Solana Meme Coin After It Crashes 75% (CoinDesk): Japan’s prime minister says she has no knowledge of or involvement in a Solana-based meme token that briefly reached a market cap of $27.7 million before collapsing.
Iran War Live: Israel Attacks Tehran and Beirut; drones hit the US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions ripped through Tehran and Beirut, and financial markets around the world crumbled at the prospect of prolonged disruption of global energy supplies from US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
US closes 2 Gulf embassies as Iran steps up retaliation (The New York Times): The US closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone strikes and urged Americans to leave 14 Middle East countries immediately as Iran expanded its retaliatory attacks.
Dow futures fall; Oil prices rise (The Wall Street Journal): Futures for the three main US indexes fell by at least 1.4%. Shares in Europe and Asia slipped and oil prices rose as the conflict in the Middle East showed signs of escalating in its fourth day.
