By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin rose to just below $72,000, hitting a one-month high and lifting the broader crypto market even as the war in the Middle East wreaks havoc on traditional markets.
The outperformance stems from several factors, including relative positioning, rising odds for the passage of the long-debated US Clarity Act aimed at legalizing stablecoins and hopes that the conflict with Iran will soon end.
Bitcoin, down nearly 50% from its all-time high in October, was oversold before hostilities began on Saturday. So when traditional assets tumbled, BTC held up well. That has likely revived investor interest in the largest cryptocurrency and drawn institutions back to the venue’s ETFs.
As noted on Monday, bitcoin will win because the war will only worsen government finances worldwide, leading to more “fiat degradation.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times released an interesting report that probably helped the price increase, according to Bloomberg. The report said that the day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s intelligence ministry contacted the CIA to discuss terms to end the war. While the US ignored the overture, outreach suggests that back channels are still active and could be used again, potentially leading to a ceasefire.
Finally, there is a possibility that the Clarity Act may soon be adopted.
“Speculation was circulating in the US that the Clarity Act was close to being signed into law. This helped lift many altcoins against major assets as they are expected to be among the biggest long-term beneficiaries of the legislation,” said Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent, in an email.
However, he added that there is currently no strong evidence that a large pool of sidelined money is waiting to flow into digital assets, and any rotation is still relatively small or gradual.
Looking ahead, traders expect volatility to continue, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil supply choke point, remains closed and oil prices continue to rise.
“We expect continued volatility, but if the disruption continues, there is likely to be more pressure to reopen Hormuz. Bitcoin has outperformed broader risk and see that as an early signal of stabilizing sentiment,” QCP Capital’s market insight team said. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 4 March at 8:15 am: February US ADP hiring change (previous 22,000)
- 4 March at 10am: US ISM services PMI for February (prev 53.8)
- 4 March at 14:00: US Fed Beige Book
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- The Uniswap DAO votes across two linked proposals to extend v2 and v3 protocol fees to eight layer-2 networks and enable a new tier-based fee system across all v3 pools. Voting ends March 4 and 5.
- ENS DAO votes to replace three DNSSEC oracle algorithms to patch a critical RSA signature forgery vulnerability and significantly reduce gas costs. Voting ends March 4.
- Unlocks
- The token is launched
- March 4: Block Street (BSB) to list on Binance Alpha, Bybit, others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 4.49% as of 16 ET Wednesday at $71,283.58 (24 hours: +6.65%)
- ETH is up 5.19% to $2,068.65 (24 hours: +5.64%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 4.31% to 3,086.55 (24 hours: +5.45%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps to 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0051% (5.6119% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.25% to 98.81
- Gold futures are up 1.70% at $5,194.10
- Silver futures are up 4.00% at $86.24
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.61% at 54,245.54
- The Hang Seng closed up 2.01% at 25,249.48
- The FTSE 100 is up 0.18% at 10,502.97
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.70% to 5,812.08
- The DJIA closed down 0.83% at 48,501.27 on Tuesday
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.94% at 6,816.63
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.02% at 22,516.69
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.19% at 33,784.90
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.95% at 3,539.33
- US 10-year Treasuries are up 1 bps at 4.06%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,825.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,762.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.12% at 48,501.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.61% (+0.81%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02909 (0.26%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.26
- Total fees: 2.71 BTC / $183,733
- CME Futures open interest: 101,620 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.7 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.77%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format from the beginning of 2024.
- The rejection above $71,000 has renewed focus on the $74,000 level, which served as resistance, an area buyers hit in March 2024 and later as support, where selling stalled last April.
- This level therefore represents an area of significant historical economic activity and can now serve as an important inflection zone: a break and hold above $74,000 could open the door to a push towards higher levels, while repeated failures there could restart selling pressure.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $182.36 (–1.55%), +6.66% at $194.51 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.68 (–4.83%), +4.01% at $21.51
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.66 (–8.36%), +6.47% at $9.22
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.29 (–6.94%), +3.53% at $15.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.30 (–7.22%), +2.55% at $15.69
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.89 (–6.26%), +4.25% at $10.31
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.83 (+3.44%), +0.65% at $10.90
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.88 (–6.31%), +4.67% at $39.65
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $99.63 (+3.63%), +6.15% at $105.76
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.12 (–2.04%), +2.93% at $34.09
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $132.68 (–3.61%), +7.70% at $142.89
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.79 (–10.80%), +14.65% at $0.90
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (+2.68%)
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.26 (–1.76%), +4.68% at $7.60
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $225.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28m
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$10.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.66 billion
- Total ETH holding ~5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
