Domestic power sources mitigate the risk of LNG supply, says Leghari

Pakistan’s growing reliance on domestic power, including solar and wind power, nuclear reactors, coal and hydropower, has reduced the country’s vulnerability to global LNG supply disruptions, Energy Minister Awais Leghari said. Reuters.

The war in the Middle East threatens shipments from Qatar, the world’s No. 2 producer after the United States, which supplies most of Pakistan’s imported LNG, which is used to fuel power plants during peak electricity demand.

“Pakistan has steadily increased its reliance on indigenous energy resources, and about 74% of our electricity generation now comes from local sources,” Leghari said, adding that the government aims to raise it above 96% by 2034.

The figures have not been previously reported. “The people-led solar revolution and earlier decisions to invest in nuclear, hydro and local coal have all played a role in increasing Pakistan’s self-reliance,” he added.

Pakistan has long struggled ⁠with electricity shortages and has historically faced hours of daily load shedding during peak summer demand.

The country now has excess generation capacity after the addition of coal, LNG and nuclear power plants, while demand growth has slowed and rooftop solar use has increased, at times exceeding grid demand in some hubs.

Outages still occur in parts of the country due to theft, wire loss and financial constraints rather than lack of power.

‘Worst case scenario’

Qatar halted LNG production earlier this month and Asian nations, which buy 80% of its output, are struggling to meet the shortfall.

LNG now accounts for about 10% of Pakistan’s electricity generation, mainly used to meet evening demand peaks and stabilize the grid, Leghari said.

Bar chart showing decline in LNG power generation in Pakistan between fiscal year 2020-21 to fiscal year 2024-25 Source: Pakistan Ministry of Energy estimates. PHOTO: REUTERS

During the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country was forced to cut power for extended periods after failing to secure spot LNG cargoes.

“Even if LNG were disrupted or became too expensive, the impact on production capacity, industry or agriculture would be minimal,” Leghari said.

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But he said prolonged disruptions could still lead to further shortages during the summer, when demand rises from the use of air conditioners. “In a worst-case scenario, if LNG cargoes stopped for several months, Pakistan may see one to two hours of load shedding during peak summer evenings,” Leghari said.

Such outages are likely to affect some urban and rural areas, not industry or agriculture, he said, adding that Pakistan is developing battery storage to shift excess daytime solar power to evening peaks.

The government canceled 21 LNG cargoes due in 2026-27 under a long-term deal with ⁠Italy’s Eni as domestic electricity and solar growth reduced gas demand.

Local and green

“Pakistan is not expected to invest in any power source that may jeopardize it in terms of energy security,” Leghari said, saying the government’s plans for the next six to eight years are to focus on indigenous clean power.

About 55% of electricity generation now comes from clean sources, which the government aims to raise above 90% by 2034, Leghari said.

Read more: Prioritization of domestic energy supply

Hydropower produces about 40 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, while nuclear power generates about 22 TWh and domestic coal about 12 TWh, according to the minister, making up a significant portion of Pakistan’s electricity supply without relying on imported fuel.

Rooftop solar installations have risen to more than 20 GW across Pakistan, with behind-the-meter capacity estimated at 12-14 GW and possibly up to 18 GW, sharply reducing demand on the grid during daytime hours, he said.

Hydropower generation also increases in the summer as river flows increase, adding up to 7,000 megawatts of capacity and helping to meet higher electricity demand from air conditioning.