Bitcoin and other risk assets have become increasingly sensitive to statements by US President Donald Trump, with markets often swinging up or down within minutes of his social media posts or policy announcements to the news media.
This has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers, academics and market experts as questions arise about whether these price movements have created lucrative opportunities for market manipulation or insider trading.
A recent study by the University of Oxford Law Faculty found sharp swings in global markets following rapid changes in US tariff policy, including a sequence in which prices across the crypto and stock markets fell after new tariffs were announced, then rebounded after Trump partially rolled them back days later.
The scale and timing of these moves, the author noted, created “fantastic trading opportunities” for anyone with advanced knowledge of the decisions. Also, these back and forth decisions by Trump have been widely criticized and called the Trump Again Chickens Out (TACO) dynamic.
‘A good time to buy’
The issue gained further attention after Trump posted “THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY!!” on Truth Social in April 2025, shortly before announcing a rate adjustment that sent markets higher, prompting an investigation by lawmakers including Sen. Adam Schiff. for potential insider trading or market manipulation.
Analysts, pundits and media reports have highlighted patterns of large, well-timed trades across commodity and prediction markets, in some cases placed minutes before major political or military announcements.
“Many experts say the Trump administration has engaged in market manipulation,” according to a March episode of CBC’s Front Burner, which pointed to unusually massively profitable trades in oil futures ahead of announcements related to the war with Iran.
Democratic Congressman Stephen Lynch raised similar concerns. He said trading activity linked to major Trump announcements “raised serious concerns about insider trading and market manipulation by government officials in possession of sensitive national security information.”
There is no evidence that Trump or his administration have violated securities laws or intentionally manipulated the markets for their own gain, but the increasing number of unusually well-timed market moves, combined with the administration’s direct influence on politics, geopolitics and regulation, has led to a broader debate about whether the line between policymaking and market influence is becoming increasingly blurred.
From the “Genesis” skepticism of 2019 to the naval blockades of 2026, here are five top moments when bitcoin’s price swung either up or down because of a statement or social media post by Trump.
The Top Five BTC Price Fluctuations
1. 11 July 2019 – “Not a Fan” Genesis Post. In his first direct broadside against the asset class, Trump wrote on Twitter: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that are not money … and based on thin air.” Bitcoin fell 7.1% within 45 minutes of the thread.
2. 3 March 2025 – The Strategic Reserve Pivot. After a year of pro-crypto campaigning, Trump confirmed via Truth Social that his “Strategic National Crypto Reserve” would include a multi-asset basket of cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin. Bitcoin rose 8.2% in less than 24 hours, jumping from $84,000 to over $91,000.
3. October 10, 2025 — 100% tariff on China. In another Truth Social post, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports to counter Beijing’s rare earth export controls. Bitcoin plunged 12.4% in about two hours, crashing from a high of $124,714 to $102,000. And within 24 hours, a $19.38 billion liquidation event had occurred, marking the largest single-day wipeout in the asset’s history.
4. March 3, 2026 – The Anti-Bank “Genius Act” Post. Trump once again took to Truth Social to criticize Wall Street banks for “undermining” the Genius Act and delaying the passage of the Clarity Act over stablecoin dividend provisions. Bitcoin rose 5.2% in 10 minutes to $71,000. This moment highlighted the administration’s willingness to go to war with the old financial system to protect the crypto sector.
5. 14 April 2026 – The peace talks. After the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Iran had “reached out” to potential peace talks and that a deal was “very possible”. Bitcoin rose 6.2% within 30 minutes from $70,000 to nearly $75,000.
It can happen again
Bitcoin shot to a more than two-month high above $78,000 on Friday after Trump essentially announced the end of the war and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But by the end of the day there were already questions about exactly what the US and Iran had agreed to.
On Saturday morning, Iran’s military said the strait was closed again, and there were reports of some ships making U-turns and others being fired upon. Crypto prices quickly gave back Friday’s gains, with bitcoin slipping back below $76,000.
