Bitcoin has a unique pattern and has held across all major bullish cycles since the cryptocurrency began trading near zero 16 years ago. This pattern suggests that prices could fall to at least $48,000.
The pattern works like this. Draw Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC started trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to the bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017 and November 2021.
The bear markets that followed these peaks saw prices fall well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to bull peaks. This has happened every time, as seen in the charts below.
Four tops, four subsequent bear markets and four breaks below the 61.8% level. No exceptions.
Now comes the current cycle. Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 earlier this year. The 61.8% retracement from near zero in early 2010 to that high is at $48,215. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 today, still well above that level.
The pattern is not triggered. But if it does, a crash to at least $48,215 is where the chart is pointing.
