- Adata CEO predicts memory shortage could continue into next decade
- Chen says AI demand is still exceeding most industry expectations worldwide
- DDR5 prices rose another 7% during July despite earlier market optimism
Chen Li-bai, chairman of memory chip maker ADATA, has dismissed growing market speculation about an impending collapse in AI-related investments.
After TSMC’s share price fell following its latest earnings call, Chen argued that discussions of an AI bubble remain premature at this stage.
He bluntly said that any real conversation about a potential bubble would have to wait until after 2030.
Global demand still exceeds market expectations
Global demand for AI computing power, memory chips and electricity continues to exceed what most market analysts expected.
Meta’s recent decision to lease out excess computing resources sparked speculation that cloud providers had overbuilt capacity faster than demand warranted.
According to Chen, this interpretation does not necessarily mean that overall demand for artificial intelligence has fallen below previous projections.
Future AI applications, he believes, will expand across multiple business models simultaneously, spanning B2B, B2G, B2C and B2B2C categories.
Chen criticized analysts who judge the broader AI boom using only short-term capital spending or figures for a single company’s deployment.
Such a narrow approach, he warned, amounts to a “view of the sky through a tube” that underestimates long-term demand.
Although Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron are pursuing expanded manufacturing capacity, Chen predicted continued scarcity across the memory sector.
Electricity, especially green electricity, and memory will remain the two scarcest global resources in the coming decade, in his view.
Producers are now expected to pursue rational, cautious expansion rather than repeat previous cycles of disorderly, large-scale capacity additions.
DDR5 prices are already reflecting the tightening pressure
Real-world price data already supports Chen’s underlying argument of persistent structural shortages rather than temporary market noise.
DDR5 memory kits in Germany rose 7% in July 2026 alone, reaching new record high prices, according to 3D Center.
This increase pushed average DDR5 costs to 448% above prices recorded in July 2025, representing more than a quadrupling in a single year.
Much of this increase occurred between October 2025 and January 2026, despite brief stagnation between February and June.
In addition to AI data centers, Chen expects robots, autonomous vehicles, unmanned factories, unmanned stores, smart homes, low-orbit satellites and related ground infrastructure to require additional memory capacity.
He argued that these combined demands cannot be met by the three dominant memory manufacturers, or even major Chinese manufacturers, within a single decade.
As AI applications extend from centralized data centers to physical devices and infrastructure, memory scarcity may become a structural trend rather than a passing cyclical phase.
For consumers and PC makers already struggling with elevated component costs, Chen’s outlook offers little to suggest relief is coming soon.
Via Ctee (originally in Chinese)
Follow TechRadar on Google News and add us as a preferred source to get our expert news, reviews and opinions in your feeds.
