Bitcoin is pushing toward $75,000, a price it has repeatedly failed to surpass since early February, putting the broader crypto market on breakout watch after more than two months of range-bound trading.
Traders have built short positions around that level, betting on another rejection. Data from CoinGlass shows that around $200 million in shorts would be liquidated if BTC pushes above $75,500 – a dynamic that could accelerate any upward movement.
At the same time, the macroeconomic mood is improving. U.S. stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 index posting its highest close since before the Iran conflict escalated after President Donald Trump signaled willingness to strike a deal with Tehran.
Precious metals also made a comeback on Tuesday with silver rallying 2.9% since midnight UTC, while gold was up 0.7% at $4,775 per ounce. ounces.
Derivatives positioning
- Nominal open interest (OI) in crypto futures rose to $126 billion, the highest since January 31, according to Coinglass.
- Ether’s OI rose to 14.99 million ETH ($35.79 billion), the highest since July. The growth likely stems from increased demand for bullish bets because the 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is positive, indicating that aggressive buying is dominating the flow. Positive funding rates also suggest the same.
- Bitcoin OI has risen to an all-time high of 767,000 BTC, while positive CVD and funding rates also signal bullish positioning.
- ZEC, SOL and HYPE are other notable coins showing bullish patterns.
- It is worth noting that while funding rates are positive for most tokens, they are not exceptionally high. This is a sweet spot for a grind higher, and indicates that the market is not overheated.
- However, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) indices for bitcoin and ether, BVIV and EVIV, have stopped falling over the past two days. Until recently, the spot price rally was accompanied by falling IV, a dynamic that has now changed, with IV stabilizing even as prices continue to rise. If this divergence continues or widens, it could raise questions about the sustainability of the price gains.
- Data from Deribit shows that the dealer’s gamma positioning is deeply negative at $75,000. So if BTC rises past this level, traders can buy into the rising market to hedge their exposure back to neutral. This can accelerate the uptrend. Similarly, if prices turn lower from $75,000, traders can sell into a falling market, accelerating the decline.
- Bitcoin puts remain more expensive than calls across all timeframes, risk reversals show. In ether’s case, sentiment has turned bullish in favor of calls with short expirations. The long end continues to show a bias for puts.
Token talk
- The altcoin market is on the backseat of Tuesday’s breakout attempt, with the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) indexes showing gains of 0.5%-0.7% since midnight, beating benchmarks weighted against altcoins.
- Ether (ETH) is up 0.7% since midnight, beating majors XRP and SOL, which are down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. ADA lost 2.2% overnight.
- Memecoins BONK, FLOKI and WIF have cooled off after a sector-wide rally on Monday, with each losing between 2.4% and 3% since midnight as traders focus on the potential bitcoin breakout.
- Athena ( ENA ) rose 5.6% over the past 24 hours before giving back 4% in Asian and European hours.
- The altcoin market is nicely balanced. If bitcoin breaks above $75,000 and consolidates, fresh capital will rotate into more speculative bets. For now, the focus is on BTC.
