Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns have fallen to levels that have marked every bear market bottom in the past decade, and the latest reading on the chain points to accumulation rather than more downside.
The Sharpe ratio, which measures return against volatility, fell to -20 on June 11, according to CryptoQuant data reviewed by CoinDesk. It hit that mark at the lows of the 2015, 2018-19 and 2022-23 cycles.
The catch is what came next. In all three cases -20 marked the start of a long base rather than a launch. The metric stayed below the line for about five months in 2015 and about three months each in 2018-19 and 2022-23 before bitcoin began a sustained recovery. So the signal can be interpreted as the floor is forming, not that the rebound has come.
Meanwhile, Accumulator wallets, the addresses with a history of holding instead of selling, received about 125,000 BTC in the first half of June.
Currency reserves have fallen about 80,000 BTC since February to about 2.71 million, and whales pulled more than 11,000 out of exchanges over the past 24 hours.
This is the latest in a series of bottom signals on the chain over two weeks, following similar calls from valuation and sentiment gauges. They measure accumulation and exhaustion, not flows, and the driving force behind bitcoin’s recovery from its lows of $59,130 to around $65,800 was the US-Iran deal, not metrics, per CoinDesk data.
Today’s FOMC decision, Kevin Warsh’s first as chairman, is the next test. A team is nearly fully priced, so the dot plot and Warsh’s tone on inflation will determine whether the rally continues.
