The current state of the financial markets is best described as macro geopolitics first, crypto second.
The evidence is clear. Despite recent positive legislative developments related to the Clarity Act, bitcoin has shown some excitement, trading near $77,200 – largely unchanged over the past 24 hours and for the week.
Meanwhile, oil is still elevated near $100 and speculative capital is pouring into copper on fears of sulfur shortages. The connection? Copper production is heavily dependent on sulfuric acid, the supply of which has been disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz.
Basically everything revolves around Hormuz, driving commodity flows and prices higher, stoking inflation fears, lifting bond yields, which supposedly outweigh crypto. US stocks, meanwhile, are hovering near record highs, fueled by AI optimism.
Bitcoin is not at the center of this geo-economic and AI repricing.
It’s no surprise, then, that US spot bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed, registering $1.15 billion in outflows this week after $1 billion last week, according to SoSoValue. The Coinbase premium, a key gauge of US demand relative to the rest of the world, has hit monthly lows.
Analysts have repeatedly emphasized that these indicators need significant improvement before a sustained rally can take hold. The question is whether that will happen while markets remain fixated on geopolitics and artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, certain corners of the crypto market, particularly on-chain perpetuals and quantum-resistant tokens, continue to show strength, driven by specific news and narratives that we discussed on Thursday. Layer-1 blockchain Near Protocol’s token (NEAR) is the latest addition to this group, surging over 25% in the last 24 hours following the announcement of a major upgrade focused on automated scaling and quantum resiliency.
In traditional markets, Nasdaq futures have given up early gains and are trading largely flat. Analysts remain broadly bullish on stocks after the latest earnings season. Pay attention.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
HYPE’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 70. While readings above 70 are commonly referred to as “overbought”, this interpretation is often misleading.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 simply signals strong bullish momentum and suggests that the uptrend may still have room to run. This does not automatically mean that the asset is overvalued or due for an impending reversal, as the popular narrative often suggests.
In strong trending markets, the RSI can remain elevated for extended periods without triggering a meaningful pullback.
