The crypto market enters the latter part of the month in a dangerous position with bitcoin still below $60,000 and ether (ETH) less than $1,600.
Bitcoin price has now lost more than 50% of its value since October’s record high, with analysts suggesting more downside is on the cards over the coming months.
On Monday, the largest cryptocurrency is marginally in the black, up 0.6% since midnight UTC to $59,800 despite the broader market structure and chart formation skewing bearish.
Solana (SOL) has recovered after falling to its lowest point since late 2023 earlier this month. It is up more than 13% since Thursday and 2% since midnight.
US stocks rose overnight as Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.75%. Both indexes remain in a downtrend since hitting record highs on June 15.
Derivatives positioning
- Over $200 million in futures positions have been forced out or liquidated by exchanges in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for the majority of the amount.
- There are signs of a turnaround over the past four hours: The nearly $20 million in liquidations included $13 million in shorts. It shows how BTC’s rise to $60,000 caught some bears off guard.
- The BTC futures market offers some excitement. Open interest (OI) is back in ranges seen earlier this month, erasing the minor pop to 775K BTC seen last Friday. Traders seem less willing to take on risk.
- The same goes for ether, where OI remains locked at around 14.2 million ETH.
- Open interest positioning in SOL feels relatively elevated at 72.70 million SOL, just below the record high of over 76 million SOL set on June 24. That suggests the potential for more volatility in Solana’s native token.
- AVAX rose over 5% last week, decoupling from market leader BTC’s weakness. But that hasn’t been enough to draw traders into leveraged betting. OI continues to fall and stands at 38.07 million tokens, the lowest since April 1st. This raises questions about the sustainability of the price increases.
- The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains bearish. Most of the top 25 tokens, except for TRX, XMR and ZEC, are showing negative values, a sign that bears are leading price action by selling via market orders rather than limit orders.
- However, volatility indices offer some good news. BVIV, which tracks BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, fell 5% to 47% today, putting its two-week rally on hold. It suggests a renewed bet on calm in the market, typically a feature of sharp recovery in spot prices.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias for puts or downside protection. In BTC’s case, the $60,000 put now has a theoretical open interest of nearly $1 billion, which can almost rival the $1.11 billion sitting in the $80,000 call. These two have been the main choices for at least two months. Should prices fall below $60,000, the next major option cluster is at $50,000, with a theoretical OI of $712 million.
- Over the weekend, traders sold chokes in the July 10 expiration of HYPE options on the decentralized platform Derive, according to data tracked by Laevitas. Shorting a choke is a bet on price consolidation.
Token talk
- The altcoin market is little changed, trading in line with the major cryptocurrencies as traders seem apathetic towards more speculative assets until bitcoin confirms its next move.
- Privacy coins dash (DASH) and zcash (ZEC) are up more than 2% on Monday. The move comes after both assets lost between 18% and 30% in the past two weeks alone, suggesting it’s more of a relief rally than a meaningful recovery.
- lost 1.5% since midnight and joined AI token FET in min.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 49/100, a level it has held for most of June as investors focus on bitcoin’s next move.
