Bitcoin and ether are grinding toward the lower end of their recent ranges, major market-making firm Wintermute’s OTC trading desk said in a Wednesday note shared with CoinDesk, with both assets caught between last week’s hawkish Fed and stop-start Iran headlines.
Options markets are pricing in a relatively tight move for the next 24 hours. Wintermute’s one-day straddle, a measure of expected swing derived from option prices, put bitcoin in a range of $61,242 to $63,563 and ether between $1,606 and $1,694, implying moves of about 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively.
The background is degraded. Token correlations are rising, meaning the assets are moving together rather than on their own fundamentals, while liquidity thins in the summer months with no new institutional bid visible in ETF flows.
Wintermute flagged $59,000 as the level to watch, calling it the bear market low and key support if the current pressure continues.
Three catalysts will shape the rest of the week: the US-Iran peace deal and whether it holds, Thursday’s PCE inflation print, the Fed’s preferred measure of price growth and the quarterly options expiring at month-end, which could amplify moves as traders roll or close out large positions.
