Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 forward, as of CoinDesk price data, and is still looking for a catalyst strong enough to break the range it has held for weeks.
Selling from spot bitcoin ETFs has eased from earlier this month, but new institutional demand has yet to return.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now posted a sixth straight week of net outflows, data show, with just a few days in the green. The scale has narrowed, but the absence of sustained access shows that institutions remain defensive as markets reassess the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
A bigger weight is the rebounding dollar. After the June meeting, the Fed’s cautious message dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts, lifting the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, to the 100.6-100.8 range, while keeping Treasury yields high.
With liquidity still tight, capital favors assets with more stable returns over volatile ones like bitcoin.
Easing geopolitical tensions following the US-Iran deal has improved risk appetite, a short-term support. It has not been strong enough to offset the stronger dollar and cautious flows.
Bitcoin is likely to hold a range of $60,000 to $67,000 in the near term, Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said in emailed comments to CoinDesk. The market is “balanced between supportive and restrictive forces,” he said, with easing ETF selling and better sentiment on one side and a non-supportive Fed and unconfirmed institutional flows on the other.
A sustainable recovery in the second half would require more time to accumulate, a return of ETF inflows and stronger institutional demand. Until then, the current rebounds look technical rather than the start of a new uptrend.
