Bitcoin hasn’t bottomed yet, and a new all-time high is unlikely this year, said Michael Terpin, an early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich.
“Before a bull market for bitcoin can be called, the price has to break back above $100,000 and there has been no support nearby,” according to Terpin, who said the bottom will be seen at $57,000 sometime in October.
“Despite a double-digit gain so far in April, we are very much still in a bitcoin decline.”
Terpin is often called the ‘Crypto Godfather’ for his involvement in the industry around 2013, when the digital asset sector was still small and somewhat misunderstood by the mainstream. Among his many ventures, Terpin founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies, CoinAgenda, one of the first conferences in the space, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group.
His bearish view of this cycle contrasts with the consensus among analysts that February’s low around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most of these bullish analysts cited renewed approaches to US-listed spot ETFs and the token’s resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price surge as part of their outlook.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Terpin said that in Asian trading hours on Monday, “the $80,000 psychological barrier was strongly rejected, with the high price of oil a factor.” He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation.
While Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom is yet to be seen, he disagrees with the timeline, adding that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Capitulation is a phase in which long-term holders exit in large numbers, signaling a peak in selling pressure.
“Terpin makes a reasonable case for a later cycle bottom, but I don’t think bitcoin has fully capitulated yet,” Fernandes said. “Historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear depletion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and we’re certainly not there yet.”
Terpin insisted that fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle bottom.
“It suggests somewhere around $57,000,” he said, predicting that will happen sometime in October, roughly the same timeline from last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000, followed by the Oct. 10 crash that saw $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out in the largest single-day event ever.
Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin.
“Liquidity conditions remain tight and risk assets are still broadly adjusting to a higher long-term interest rate environment,” he said. “Until we see a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a true washout event in the crypto markets, downside volatility remains likely.”
‘Excessively Bearish’
The author and entrepreneur also said that bitcoin will not see an all-time high (ATH) this year.
However, Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees.
“While I hesitate to ever disagree with the ‘Crypto Godfather,’ his stance seems excessively bearish to me,” Greenspan said. “We still have plenty of room to run this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time-high (ATH) certainly seems plausible.”
AdLunam’s Fernandes also said market sentiment has yet to reach the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms.
“Sentiment has not reached the kind of extreme pessimism that typically marks cycle lows,” he said. “To me, that says we may still need one more leg down — whether it fits exactly with the $57,000 to $59,000 range — before a sustainable base forms.”
As for Terpin’s $100,000 level, Fernandes said it serves more as a psychological signal than a strict technical threshold.
“A true bull market is defined by structural higher highs and strong capital inflows, not just a single price level,” he said. “That said, the psychological effects of hitting $100,000 can trigger exactly that behavior,” Fernandes added.
