The crypto market is sliding lower, with bitcoin lost 1% since midnight UTC, while ether (ETH) is marginally better, falling 0.65%, although some other risk assets, such as US stock index futures, are rising.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes posted gains of 0.35% and 0.20%, respectively, widening the divergence between crypto and stocks that has defined much of this year.
Gold is little changed, holding above $4,000, and the dollar index (DXY) was also barely moving, leaving crypto without a clean macro narrative to lean on.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed index is at 34, deep in “fear” territory, while the average relative strength index (RSI) across crypto pairs has fallen to 44.07, moving back toward the oversold conditions that set up July’s relief rally.
Derivatives positioning
- Dismissal of conviction: Crypto futures are characterized by churning rather than establishing new positions. While trading volume increased by 81% to $127 billion over the past 24 hours, open interest (OI) remained unchanged at approximately $111 billion.
- Take advantage of the demand levels: Bitcoin futures OI growth stalled near 750K BTC, failing to gain traction despite a recent swing that took the price above $64,000. This stagnation indicates that demand for leverage remains low and is a clear sign that investors are not comfortable increasing their risk exposure. A similar pattern of caution is evident in ether (ETH) and XRP futures.
- Solana capital outflow: Solana (SOL) is seeing a clear trend of contraction, with futures OI falling to 62 million tokens, the lowest since early May. This represents a significant decline from the June 24 peak of over 76 million, signaling significant position liquidation and capital outflow from the SOL market.
- Bitcoin cash outstanding: stands out as today’s exception. OI in BCH futures is up 20% to 1.73 million tokens, matching the record high set on June 21st. This build-up increases the likelihood of volatile price action ahead, especially as the token has fallen 3% to $213 over the past 24 hours.
- Bearish market delta: Broadly speaking, bears appear to be driving the price action across most top-tier tokens. This is reflected in negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) readings for most major coins, including bitcoin and ether. In particular, the privacy-focused ZEC has issued the most negative CVD on the market.
- Volatility Fear Gauge Alert: Traders should be aware of potential market turbulence. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) is approaching 36%. This level has served as a floor in recent years; previous instances of the index hitting this threshold have often been preceded by large volatility booms and sharp bitcoin price declines.
- Options Sentiment Divergence: On the Deribit options exchange, persistent downside caution is keeping BTC and ETH puts priced higher than calls. However, 24-hour volume reveals a tactical bias to the upside: the $70,000 Bitcoin call has emerged as the most traded contract, while the $2,450 call leads the charts for ether.
Token talk
- Zcash (ZEC) reversed course on Monday after its recent run, falling 3.68% to $527. The pullback follows a period of outperformance and may reflect profit-taking.
- AI tokens are among the broader losers, with FET down 2.94% and TAO down 2.58%, giving back some of last week’s gains as the sector struggles to maintain momentum.
- is the past 24-hour standout mover, up 20% following a wave of social media noise led by crypto influencer Ansem, who posted bullish analysis suggesting the company is making $30 million to $40 million a month in a bear market.
- Jupiter (JUP) also advanced, rising 1.02% to $0.197 alongside an increase in trading volume, continuing the token’s gradual rehabilitation after weeks of heavy losses.
- Lighter (LIT) fell another 1.83%, extending a pullback from its all-time highs as profit-taking continues to weigh on a token that rallied more than 200% between May and early July.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Seasonal Indicator is at 55/100, the highest reading in months, although the Fear and Greed score of 34 suggests the market remains cautious despite pockets of altcoin strength.
