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One of my favorite things about sports betting is that we can do it every day. The NBA and NHL offer us another six games a day usually, and soccer dominates our weekends. With baseball, we get about 15 games to choose from over 150 days a year. There is always something to look forward to in the sports calendar. I picked tonight’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers so we could enjoy it.
The Diamondbacks are off to a decent 15-12 start to the season. On the road, they’ve been exactly average, going 6-6 in the early stretch of the year. For the most part, Arizona has been carried by strong offensive output. I don’t know if I expected that considering they traded away Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez last season.
They also didn’t really do anything to replace those guys in the offseason. However, the team is hitting .255 for the year, which is good for sixth in the league. Their 27 homers are in the bottom half of the league, but they are 11th in runs scored.
Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks looks on before game six of the Championship Series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pa., on Oct. 23, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Merrill Kelly starts for the Diamondbacks. He was another player traded away from Arizona last season, but he re-signed in the offseason. It has not been a particularly positive return to the team. In two starts, he is 1-1 with a 9.31 ERA and a 2.28 WHIP. He recorded a win in his first outing, going 5.1 innings against the Orioles, but still allowed five hits, two earned runs and four walks. He has been solid against the Brewers, holding them to just nine hits in 51 at-bats.
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The Brewers have been one of the better teams and franchises for years, but maybe this is a year they take a step back. They are just 14-13 for the season and are 8-7 overall at home. Seeing Milwaukee get off to a slow start is a bit surprising because they’ve overcome pretty much everything thrown their way over the past few years. As a team, they are hitting just .231, but they have the same runs as the Diamondbacks. They have even fewer homers, so maybe it’s just a matter of time before the power catches up?
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick throws a pitch in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis., on April 15, 2026. (Benny Sieu/Imagn Images)
Maybe this is just a bad stretch; they are 1-4 over their last five games and 6-11 over their last 17 games. Tonight they send Chad Patrick out to the mound. He’s had a pretty strong start to the year, but is coming off his worst outing. He also hasn’t gone too deep into many games.
He has completed five innings just twice in his five starts. Overall, he has allowed six earned runs in 23 innings, good for a 2.35 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. There haven’t been many at-bats against him from the Diamondbacks’ hitters, but they have gone 4-for-11 against him.
We have two guys on the mound tonight giving up quite a few hits in the early season. Combined, they have allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings. There is a lot of traffic on the main paths. Both teams still score runs, and neither team really relies on homers to get the runs. I think that’s usually a good reason to back one over. I’ll take the over 8 runs in this one.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy reacts during the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts on April 6, 2026. (Paul Rutherford/Imagn Images)
I’d say both starters are capable of putting up zeros, but given their current form, I’m not loving it. I also think the Brewers win this game. Officially, I just want to play over.
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