Gemini shares rise on potential prediction market challenges to Kalshi, Polymarket, Hyperliquid

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange run by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, received US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval for a derivatives clearinghouse license (DCO), allowing it to enter regulated derivatives and crypto’s fastest growing, most contested sector, prediction markets.

The approval allows Gemini to clear and settle trades internally rather than relying on external providers, giving it greater control over how its predictive market products operate and scale.

Gemini shares rose about 7% after the announcement.

Prediction markets have become one of crypto’s fastest-growing areas, with trading volume increasing by over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion, and Hyperliquid, a DeFi derivatives platform, is gearing up to compete with incumbents such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Wall Street is also on board as Roundhill Investments is expected to roll out the first US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to prediction markets on May 5, while two other asset managers are preparing similar products.

The approval builds on the crypto firm’s December 2025 debut of a prediction marketplace via another affiliate, Gemini Titan, which received a designated contract market (DCM) authorization from the CFTC.

With DCM and DCO licenses in place, Gemini is positioned to offer a full-stack trading ecosystem spanning sports, crypto, futures, options and event-based contracts, the company said. Gemini also expressed intentions to expand into crypto futures, options and perpetuals for US users.

“Today marks a major milestone in Gemini’s marketplace expansion,” Cameron Winklevoss said in the statement, framing the development as part of a broader push toward a “super app” for financial services.

In February, Gemini announced its plans to enter the prediction market sector and focus exclusively on the US when it announced its exit from the UK, EU and Australia, which included a staff reduction of around 25%.

“The reality is that America has the world’s largest capital markets, and America has always been where it is for Gemini,” the founders said, adding that their “thesis is that predictable markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets.”

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