Leading decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s push into prediction markets is about who captures the upside, not just cheaper trading, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX exchange and CIO of the Maelstrom fund.
CoinDesk previously reported that Hyperliquid is preparing a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4. Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 is a proposal that introduces event trading on Hyperliquid.
Hayes said the structure is only the first layer. In a note to CoinDesk, he argued that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid’s exchange token, which he said allows users to benefit from platform activity in a way that Polymarket and Kalshi currently do not.
“HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid’s large user base, much cheaper trading fees and very robust technology infrastructure,” Hayes told CoinDesk. “Users who own the $HYPE token can directly benefit from their use of HIP-4.”
Polymarket is expected to launch a token, often referred to as $POLY.
On Gate, premarket perpetual contracts tied to a potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully diluted valuation of around $14 billion. HYPE, by comparison, has a FDV of around $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
Pre-listing markets are often highly speculative and can be thinly traded, meaning any implied valuation should be treated with caution and may not reflect actual market demand.
The argument also comes down to geography. Polymarket registered with the CFTC last July and is rebuilding its US business, putting compliance at the heart of its strategy.
But in Asia, you still struggle with how regulators classify your product. It is geoblocked in Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan, partially restricted in Japan. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, prediction markets are more broadly on the radar of gambling regulators
Hyperliquid faces no similar restriction, and its user base is skewed toward Asia, where crypto-native trading is already deep.
The contrast is clearest with Kalshi.
As a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi’s model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which likely precludes the kind of value capture layer Hayes points to.
That makes it the most direct test of his thesis. Users can trade event results on Kalshi, but they have no way to the upside of the platform itself. In traditional markets, that kind of upside is typically accessed via equities, such as an IPO, although Kalshi users’ participation is so far limited to trading on the platform.
Across the three platforms, the split is structural: Hyperliquid already ties usage to a token, Polymarket appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi’s model likely prevents it altogether.
