ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan’s inflation is expected to edge higher in April, with the finance ministry estimating it in the 8-9% range as supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty continue to weigh on prices despite signs of macroeconomic stability.
In its April 2026 monthly economic update and outlook, the ministry warned that inflationary pressures were largely driven by supply-side constraints, even as the broader economy remained on a stable footing.
The report noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, had increased uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook.
The ministry said inflation, measured by the consumer price index, was expected to rise from 7.3% in March to 8-9% in April. “External demand may remain supportive in some markets, but the balance of risks will become less favorable than in a pre-war situation,” the report said.
At the same time, the report pointed to continued robustness in the economic key figures. The overall primary surplus in the first eight months of the current fiscal year stood at 3.3% of GDP (Rs 4.319 trillion) compared to 3% (Rs 3.452 trillion) in the same period last year.
