Three tests land within a week. The first is jobs data, with April payrolls due, the first read after a delay caused by the 2025 federal shutdown.
A weaker-than-expected print prompts Federal Reserve coverage to cut faster. A strong one delays it. The second is further insight into the bitcoin treasury trade.
Strategy, Coinbase, MARA, CleanSpark, Hut 8 and Core Scientific all report Q1 earnings within the week. Riot already sold 3,778 BTC last quarter for an average of $76,626. MARA sold 15,133.
The third is Fed himself. San Francisco Fed CEO and President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee talk about central bank independence in Hoover on Friday, the same week Jerome Powell steps down as chairman (but not the Fed himself) under pressure from the White House.
“Investors are not heavily positioned and volatility remains low, creating an asymmetric setup: markets appear stable on the surface, but can react quickly to any catalyst that forces a repricing of risk,” Jennifer Hanny, a partner at Echo Base, told CoinDesk.
What to see
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- May 4: Coinbase to remove dai (DAI) and convert remaining tokens to USDS.
- May 4: ZKsync Lite is completely phased out.
- Macro
- May 4 at 11.30pm: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision estimated at 4.35% (previously 4.1%)
- 5 May at 09:00: US JOLT job openings in March (previously 6,882 million)
- 5 May at 09:00: US ISM Services PMI Estimated April 54 (previous 54)
- May 6 at 04.00: Eurozone producer price index YoY for March (Prev -3%); MoM (Previous -0.7%)
- May 6 at 07.15: Employment change in US ADP for April (previous 62,000)
- May 6 at 18.50: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes
- 7 May at 7.30am: Initial US jobless claims for the period ending May 2 (previously 189K)
- 7 May at 3.30pm: US Fed Balance Sheet for Period Ending May 6 (Previous $6,700T)
- May 8 at 7:30 a.m.: Canada’s unemployment rate for April (previously 6.7%)
- May 8 at 07:30: US non Farm Payrolls for April estimated 73K (Prev 178K)
- May 8 at 07:30: US unemployment rate for April estimated 4.3% (previously 4.3%)
- May 8 at 07:30: US average hourly earnings MoM for April estimated 0.3% (prev 0.2%); YoY (Previous 3.5%)
- May 8 at 09:00: US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel for May (previous 49.8)
- May 8 at 6:30 p.m.: US Fed Presidents Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee participate in a conference on “Independence, Structure and Risks Ahead for Central Banks”
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- May 5: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$12.95
- May 5: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.27
- May 5: Cipher Digital (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.08
- May 5: MARA Holdings (MARA), after market, -$0.45
- May 6: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.34
- May 6: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.04
- May 7: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $0.26
- May 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.60
- May 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.19
- May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), after market, -$0.23
Token Events
- Governance votes and calls
- Lido DAO votes on a time-sensitive proposal to temporarily lower the EarnETH first loss protection trigger below the default 1% threshold, ensuring full compensation to users if the rsETH shortfall is resolved via DeFi United. Voting ends May 6.
- The Beefy DAO votes to authorize its Treasury Board to make private, discretionary BIFI buybacks when the token’s price falls below its calculated “fair value”. Repurchased tokens will be held as non-circulating supply. Voting ends May 6.
- World Liberty Financial votes to restructure vesting of locked WLFI tokens. Early supporters will receive a 4-year vesting plan, while insiders must burn 10% of their allocation and accept a 5-year vest. Voting ends May 6.
- Arbitrum DAO votes to release 30,766 ETH frozen by its security board after the Kelp DAO exploit to the DeFi United recovery fund. Voting ends on May 7.
- The CoW DAO is voting on whether to use its legal defense reserve to reimburse users who lost $1.2 million in the hijacking of the cow.fi domain on April 14. Voting ends on May 7.
- Mantle DAO votes to lend up to 30,000 ETH to Aave as a structured 36-month credit facility, benchmarked to Lido’s stETH return plus a 1% spread, as part of the DeFi United rsETH recovery. Voting ends May 8.
- Unlocks
- May 5: Athena (ENA) unlocks 2.12% of its circulating supply, worth $17.34 million.
- May 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.18% of its circulating supply, worth $17.5 million.
- The token is launched
- May 5: Virtual Protocols’ OPG airdrop snapshot is expected to take place.
- May 8: SoSoValue’s final testnet airdrop is expected to end.
- May 4-10: BNB’s 35th quarterly burn is expected to occur.
