Jokic’s poor shooting hurts the Nuggets in the Timberwolves series

One of the best things about streak betting is the hedge options. You can get out of bets you place before a series if you don’t like how it looks. Sure, it could cost you, but think about it – the Denver Nuggets were favored to win the series over the Minnesota Timberwolves. If you took Minnesota, you could have backed off and taken Denver a few days ago. Of all the remaining series in the NBA, this looks the most likely for a team that was down 3-1 to win the series.

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The Nuggets don’t look like a team that dominated the regular season, or even one that has an elite player in Nikola Jokic. This was another spectacular year for Jokic and he should win the MVP, but it will likely go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jokic led the league in rebounds and assists, something never done before this season. He also finished eighth in points, again averaging a triple-double. However, it hasn’t been enough to give the Nuggets an advantage in this series.

Jokic has actually looked pretty average in this series. He is averaging 25 points per game. game, which is below his season total; he’s upped his rebounding totals and, thanks to a 16-assist game last game, is roughly on par with his season average. Worryingly, his effectiveness has been terrible. He is shooting just 42.2% from the floor and 19.4% from deep in the postseason. Compare that to his regular season where he averaged 56.9% and 38.0% respectively. It shouldn’t be all on Jokic — the Nuggets defense has been terrible and Aaron Gordon hasn’t been available for every game — but a lot should fall on his shoulders since he gets so much credit for their success.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves looked like they were going to dominate the series. After four games, the team sat comfortably with a 3-1 lead. The team played balanced basketball, good defense and with a strong confidence. Then the team unfortunately had the injury bug hit them. Dante DiVincenzo went down with an Achilles tear and Anthony Edwards hyperextended his knee, which will knock him out for several weeks. Edwards is obviously a significantly bigger loss, but both hurt the team.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic looks to pass the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert defends during the second half of an NBA game in Denver on April 1, 2025. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

If the Timberwolves can’t close this out, we probably won’t get to see Rudy Gobert get the credit he deserves. He doesn’t have a very good postseason scoring record, but that’s not really what he’s out there for. He’s there to make life miserable for Jokic, and that’s exactly what he’s done. We’ll see where the rest of the team goes from here, but he’s been the most reliable of all Timberwolves players.

Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves is fouled by Justin Holiday of the Denver Nuggets during the second quarter of Game Four of the Western Conference Second Round Playoffs at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on May 12, 2024. (David Berding/Getty Images)

One of the things that most sports bettors know is that NBA role players perform better at home. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, that’s pretty much all that’s left. Julius Randle has led a team before when he was with the Knicks, but I don’t think he can do it against the Nuggets. There is still a lot of talent and I expect a better effort from the Timberwolves in this game, but I can’t back them. I don’t think the Nuggets necessarily cover, but I’m leaning more that way. I think this game goes under 224.5 because I think the only hope the Timberwolves have to win the game, and the series, is relying on their defense and slowing down their offense to limit the Nuggets’ possessions. Give me under.

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