As the world waited with anticipation and Islamabad was under siege with heightened security, Pakistan played a crucial role as a mediator. The prime minister and army chief commuted between capitals, trying to build consensus and bring the parties to the negotiating table.
Although the first round of the Islamabad talks in April 2026 ended without a breakthrough, and the second round of talks could not take place as both Iran and the US could not agree to reach a common point – with the US canceling planned envoy visits and Iran showing reluctance – Islamabad nevertheless emerged as a strong diplomatic player.
Is Pakistan becoming a powerful middle power or is it becoming a hard state? Being a tough state with increased military prowess is now perhaps a necessity of time and circumstances. The world is becoming more and more hostile and militarized. And the price of not having that hard power can be too high to pay in terms of violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
During last year’s conflict with India in May 2025, Pakistan was able to defend itself through the sheer power of its air force, aided by Chinese technology. The Pakistan Air Force deployed Chinese-supplied Chengdu J-10C fighters armed with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, and achieved notable successes, including the shooting down of Indian jets, among them advanced Rafales.
Had it not had this ability, it could have suffered a major blow from its opponent. That episode served as a stark reminder: in moments of crisis, deterrence backed by modern technology can preserve sovereignty when diplomacy alone falls short
This growing military prowess is further evident in Pakistan’s expanding defense deals and arms exports, which signal its growing influence as an arms supplier. In recent months, Pakistan has pursued major deals, including a reported $4 billion deal with the Libyan National Army for JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and Super Mushshak trainers.
Negotiations have advanced with countries such as Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Indonesia to sell dozens of JF-17 Block III aircraft, drones and other systems – deals potentially worth billions.
Building on previous exports to Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria, these efforts show how the battle-tested reputation of Pakistani weapons, developed in partnership with China, is opening up new markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
Such defense diplomacy and export promotion not only help offset the high costs of maintaining a strong military, but also increase Pakistan’s strategic leverage and influence in the Global South.
The current trajectory of the world, with increasing authoritarianism and might-is-right, is one in which those with power and might overpower the weak and vulnerable. International law is easily ignored or broken with impunity. Rules or principles are not taken into account. After all, the rules-based order was always selectively used in the interests of Western powers.
That too is now broken. Presidents are abducted from their countries, leaders are assassinated by drone and missile strikes in their own homes, embargoes and sanctions are imposed, and entire populations are starved. And then we have fascist regimes committing genocide while the world watches and no one to hold them accountable.
So what happens in such a world? For countries like Pakistan, the options are limited. Either you adapt and strengthen your defenses or be ready to be on the receiving end of strength. This is indeed a sorry state of affairs.
The blind and reckless pursuit of military power has few winners and many losers. For a country like Pakistan, it is difficult to economically justify keeping up with an arms race, but at the same time it seems to be the only realistic pragmatic solution. And it is deeply unfortunate that the two South Asian neighbors remain locked in a zero-sum game of relentless persecution.
But pursuing hard power and building a true hard state are not the same thing. The hard state model Pakistan pursues is incomplete.
A hard state has a robust economy, strong institutions, the rule of law and effective governance. This is what makes a hard state effective and internally strong. We have the example of China and Singapore – two tough states with strong, efficient systems and institutions and a robust economy.
This is the model that delivers for its citizens even as it relies on authoritarianism. Hard-line states are hardly democratic, which is why I find it difficult to be an ardent supporter. However, due to the lack of democracy and freedom of expression, they provide for the citizens through good governance and the rule of law.
Unfortunately, Pakistan is far from these features of a hard state. The economy is under pressure and both the rule of law and governance are weak. And worryingly, there is democratic backsliding and a return of civil liberties.
Unless Pakistan consolidates internally with strong institutions, a healthy economy and a system that delivers for the people, it will be a tough state in name – strong externally with military prowess and diplomatic influence, but internally weak.
The author is an independent analyst based in Islamabad.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Pakinomist.tv’s editorial policy.
Originally published in The News
