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With all the playoff basketball going on, it seems I’ve forgotten all about baseball. However, this is not the case. I’ve still been monitoring it and we’ve collected some money on the few bets I’ve placed on the game lately. Today I have a really strong take on the game between the Reds and Pirates taking place in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are one of the best teams in baseball, which is not exactly something I expected to write this season. They made the postseason last year, but given the lack of postseason moves, I just didn’t expect them to be great.
What is probably the most surprising thing about the Reds is how good they have been on the road this season. Last year there wasn’t really a good road team. Those that were over .500, with the exception of the Astros, made the postseason.
A Cincinnati Reds cap with a special logo is seen during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, July 3, 2021. Cincinnati defeated Chicago 3-2. (Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
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Today, the Reds look to keep the success going with Rhett Lowder on the mound. For the year, Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has made six starts for the year, with exactly half coming at home and away. He has an ERA a full run lower on the road than at home, allowing five earned over 17.1 innings. Four of those runs came in one game against the Marlins. The Pirates are just 2-for-11 against Lowder in his career.
The Pirates are better than they were last year, but not exactly a successful club at the moment. They are hovering around .500 for the season, which is about what they did last year. The team still needs to figure out how to hit, but they are doing better than last year.
They lost five straight games before this series, losing one to the Brewers and four to the Cardinals. Maybe it was just a bad stretch, or maybe it’s a sign of things to come. In those games, they allowed 35 runs and scored 18. That’s an average of seven allowed and 3.6 scored.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio on April 26, 2026. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)
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Carmen Mlodzinski tries to get the pirates back on track. For the year, he is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He has been significantly better at home, but most of his opportunities have come on the road. He pitches to a 1.69 ERA and allowed just two earned runs over 10.2 innings. His lone home start saw him go six scoreless innings, allowing two hits and two walks. In his history, he has allowed just three hits in 27 at-bats against the Reds.
We have two starters today who are in better situations for them. Mlodzinski has been better at home, and Lowder better away. These are still small sample sizes, but it is somewhat encouraging. The way the Pirates have had a soft run makes me worry that wonder will be toast. The Reds have been a little all over the place with runs scored and runs allowed.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski throws a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas on April 21, 2026. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
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In this particular situation, I think it makes the most sense to support the miracle. Both teams have been playing higher scoring games right now but with these two hurlers we should see fewer runs.
For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
