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The USA’s chances of a magic carpet ride to a World Cup title are still slim, but the opening is much wider than it once was.
The US men’s national team clinched a spot in the Round of 32 with its 2-0 win over Australia on Friday, but there was more to celebrate about eight hours later.
After Paraguay defeated Turkey, 1-0, the USA took first place in Group D – Turkey (zero points) cannot finish ahead of the USA (six), which already beat Paraguay and Australia (each with three) to win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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Players from the United States celebrate their first goal, an own goal by Cameron Burgess of Australia, during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match at Seattle Stadium in Seattle, Washington on June 19, 2026. (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
That means the U.S. will play a third-place finisher in the group to begin the knockout stage on July 1 in San Francisco at 7 p.m. 8 p.m. EDT.
Who the third-place team will be remains to be seen, as there are 20 different options based on the rest of the group stage – the US will play the third-place team in either Group B, E, F, I or J, and none from those groups have earned a knockout spot yet.
In any case, the USA should be favored against whoever they play if all goes according to plan – unless, of course, France or Argentina fall in their groups.
However, The Athletic noted that the most likely outcome, at 58%, is Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 64th ranked FIFA program in the world. Qatar, ranked 58th, follows with 18%, and Ecuador, ranked 28th, is third with 5%.
Alex Freeman of the United States celebrates with teammates after scoring his team’s second goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between the United States and Australia at Seattle Stadium on June 19, 2026. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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With a win there, the U.S. would then be in line to potentially be favored again as they would face the winner of Game 82. That game is the winner of Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Belgium or Egypt) against another third-place finisher. Belgium is the highest-ranked team in that group at 10th in the world, while the United States is not far behind at 13th.
Perhaps more importantly, the U.S. could get an extra week of rest for Christian Pulisic, who missed the Australia game while dealing with a calf injury he suffered in the World Cup opener against Paraguay. With nothing to lose, manager Mauricio Pochettino can, and probably will, limit the game for Pulisic and other stars.
It’s still a climb for the Stars and Stripes, but it’s no longer the highest peak.
USA’s Alex Freeman heads the ball past Australia goalkeeper Patrick Beach after a goal during the World Cup Group D match in Seattle on June 19, 2026. (Maddy Grassy/AP Photo)
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The team already has six goals in the group stage, tying its group stage record with one more to play. The USMNT will face Turkey, who need a win to stay alive, on Thursday in Los Angeles.
