Today’s main event is Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first interest rate decision. No change in rates is expected, meaning markets will scan the policy statement, economic projections and the post-meeting press conference for cues.
Here’s what could prompt a risk-on, positive reaction from bitcoin
Dot plot: This is a graphical representation of where individual Fed members see interest rates headed. Fed funds futures currently price an 80% chance of a 25 basis point increase by December. That is the reference point for reading the plot: if it shows that less than 80% of members expect a rise in December, the BTC price can react positively.
Warsh’s views on rates and inflation: Will candidate Trump break from market expectations and strike a dovish tone citing recent oil prices and AI-driven disinflation to lay the groundwork for the rate cuts the administration wants? Or will he fall in line with current market prices? In the former case, BTC could again react positively.
