Bitcoin’s onchain metrics are flashing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the path to new highs won’t be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.
Long-term owners, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens, have started taking $180 million in profits per day since BTC rose to levels above $82,000 on May 11 before falling from $81,000 to the lower $79,000s on Thursday.
“It’s a moderate amount compared to previous cycles and suggests current sales are under control,” they said, explaining that the concern lies in daily realized losses, which they said still averaged $479 million. “In quieter periods, this number is closer to $200 million. Until losses fall into the $200 million band, onchain recovery is not fully confirmed.”
The gamma trap
In support of this cautious outlook, a “gamma trap” has been identified in the derivatives market. Data from Glassnode shows nearly $2 billion in short gamma option positions pooled around the $82,000 strike price. As bitcoin trades within this zone, market makers are forced to hedge their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially “pushing” the price towards $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, noted that this gamma concentration creates a deceptive environment. “Dealer hedging can accelerate the price towards that level, but once the pressure exhausts itself, the same positioning can suppress momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandes told CoinDesk. “In other words, gamma is currently amplifying the movement and not necessarily validating it.”
While onchain data shows improvement, the analyst said, “business buyers, on the other hand, have gone quiet. Major players bought very little bitcoin last week, with an 80% drop in buying volume compared to last month.”
A big red flag is flying
Fernandes points to the divergence between price and institutional flows as a big red flag. Despite the rebound, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $635 million outflow on May 13, the largest single-day exit since January.
Mati Greenspan, a market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, noted that the current “cost-based battleground” between $79,000 and $85,000 looks more like a transition zone than a ceiling.
Beyond the technical, the broader economic landscape remains an obstacle. On May 13, the US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new central bank governor amid rising inflation of 3.8%. Fernandes noted that the market is now pricing in a “higher for longer” reality.
“Kevin Warsh has already set expectations that a rate cut is unlikely this year – it’s possible there could even be a rate hike,” Fernandes said. “I just don’t see BTC hitting a new ATH this year unless something radically changes geopolitically.”
Given the elevated realized losses and the lack of corporate support, which saw an 80% drop in buying volume last week, Bitfinex analysts said they expect a quick jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, followed by a “period of neutralization.”
Fernandes concluded that the current structure looks like “incomplete capitulation.” Until the market can flush out the $479 million in daily realized losses and regain institutional conviction, the $85,000 level remains the primary “fair-value battleground” of the cycle.
