BRUSSELS: Is it Brejoin, Breturn – or perhaps Bre-entry?
A decade after the Brexit vote, Britain is experiencing a form of “divorce regret” with surveys showing most Britons now believe leaving the EU was a mistake.
Cue a range of colorful terms to describe a possible fairytale reunion – and a more serious political debate about whether it’s something London should pursue.
The scramble ahead of an expected Labor bid to oust Prime Minister Keir Starmer has put further focus on the issue – after likely challenger Andy Burnham spoke of wanting Britain back in the EU one day.
But what about the scorned partner: Would the EU take Britain back?
AFP spoke to half a dozen European diplomats, granted anonymity to discuss the matter. All said their countries would be ready – in principle – to tie the knot again.
In a polarized world, it was argued, Europe had much to gain by regaining a nuclear power with one of the world’s largest economies and a seat on the UN Security Council.
But they all also warned that London needed to show it was committed to the marriage and its attendance obligations.
“They are not yet conceptually willing to accept the burdens that come with membership,” another diplomat said.
Some went further and suggested that the 27-nation bloc had managed to get more done without a difficult ex with a penchant for special wishes.
“Things are easier now,” said another diplomat. “We no longer have to constantly work around opt-outs on each file. There is more consistency”.
New EU, old UK
Britain never joined the euro or the Schengen area of free movement and had notoriously negotiated a discount on its common budget contribution – all taken now as signs of half-hearted Europeanism.
One of the diplomats half-jokingly mused that the Brits were perhaps most missed because of their fine command of English, leaving EU documents littered with stilted Euro-speak.
Others have good memories: Sebastien Maillard, of the British think tank Chatham House, said that countries leaning towards liberalism in economics or Atlanticism in geopolitics miss Britain as a counterweight to France’s sovereignist instincts.
But from “strategic autonomy” to “European preference” and joint borrowing, the bloc has recently embraced policies championed by Paris that could have been a tough sell in London.
“The UK doesn’t really get the full measure of how much the EU has changed over the last 10 years,” Maillard said.
The new course was largely caused by external factors – a pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise and US President Donald Trump.
But Brexit also sharpened the bloc’s focus – proving to doubters in its ranks that leaving was a bad idea, one diplomat said.
“It has led to a more mature debate about the EU,” he said, noting that right-wing populists across Europe are no longer advocating for their countries to leave the bloc.
“It is no longer about ‘do we want to be in or out of the EU?’, but about ‘what kind of EU do we want to be in?'”.
Less fish to fry
Would Britain really want to be back in the club as it is now?
The political situation in the island nation, where the hard-right, anti-EU Reform UK party is riding high in the opinion polls, calls for caution.
European nations are wary of weaving closer ties now — only to possibly unravel them later.
What’s more, some noted that it would be almost unthinkable to allow Britain to re-enter on its previous special terms.
Meanwhile, protracted negotiations to ease the pain of divorce have proved difficult – raising questions about further rapprochement and renewed EU complaints about British “cherry-picking”, a leitmotif of the Brexit era.
Negotiations for London to gain access to an EU defense arrangement collapsed because of the price tag for Britain.
And a reported British proposal to join the single market for goods but not the free movement of capital, services and people was given short shrift in Brussels, with most insisting on a package deal or nothing.
Progress has been made in other areas.
London and Brussels hope to present more agreements at a summit on July 22, namely on food and animal safety standards, a youth mobility scheme and the linking of their emissions trading systems.
It’s hardly the stuff of dreams – those longing for a romantic Bre union might say – but for now there might be baby steps to be taken.
