Recent advances in quantum computing have revived a long-standing concern about bitcoin .
A sufficiently powerful cryptographically relevant quantum computer could, in theory, break bitcoin’s elliptic curve signatures and reveal coins with visible public keys, especially early Satoshi-era wallets, according to bitcoin analyst James Check.
Quantum doomsayers warn that this will trigger a flood of supply and crash the market. The numbers suggest otherwise.
The threat of quantum computing is not in doubt.
About 1.7 million BTC are sitting in Satoshi-era addresses that could be vulnerable under such a scenario. That’s about $145 billion at current prices in potential selling pressure, which sounds catastrophic but is actually manageable.
During bull markets, long-term holders (investors who have held bitcoin for at least 155 days) routinely distribute between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC per day. At that rate, the entire supply of the Satoshi era is equivalent to about two to three months of typical profit. In the recent bear market, more than 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, exceeding the full quantum “target”, without systemic collapse.
Additionally, monthly currency inflows are approaching 850,000 BTC. Derivatives markets cycle through theoretical volumes equal to the entire Satoshi holding every few days. What appears massive in isolation becomes relatively ordinary when compared to bitcoin’s existing liquidity and turnover.
A sudden, concentrated release would still matter. That would likely drive volatility and could trigger a longer decline, according to Check. But even that scenario presupposes economically irrational behavior. Any player able to access such a trove will be incentivized to distribute gradually, probably hedging through derivatives to minimize slippage and maximize returns.
Bitcoin markets routinely absorb supply on the same order as P2PK era coins. The time frame is measured in months, not years.
The real problem is not mechanical sales pressure. It is governance. The bigger problem is potentially freezing the Satoshi coins through BIP-361 and then letting everything play as it should.
