Iran’s war bounty is back and crypto is paying for it.
Bitcoin fell 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $75,633 in Asian hours Thursday, down 3% on the week, as Brent crude rose 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel. barrel — the highest intraday level in four years — on an Axios report that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report added that the US Central Command has requested that hypersonic missiles be deployed to the Middle East, which would mark the first time US forces have used these weapons in combat. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began in late February, choking off flows of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products.
Such activity leads to a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset’s price driven by conflict risk rather than supply-demand fundamentals. Brent has carried a heavy one all year, with prices up over 100% year to date.
The global benchmark is now riding a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and is up over 100% year-to-date.
Ether fell 3.4% to $2,244, down 4.4% on the week. XRP fell 2.1% to $1.37, down 3.7% over seven days. Solana lost 2.6% to $82.62. BNB fell 1.9% to $615. The only green print in the top 10 outside of stablecoins is dogecoin, up 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week to $0.10.
Risk assets return gains across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased an earlier rally of 1.1%, driven by strong Alphabet and Amazon earnings, MSCI’s Asia Pacific stock index fell 1.4% and European shares are expected to fall 1% at the open.
The dollar rose and bonds fell as the rise in oil and a hawkish Fed keep demand for fixed income under control. Ten-year government yields held near their highest since July, and Japan’s 10-year bonds hit their highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin’s resilience through the early stages of the war is being tested. The asset has held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 through April, even as oil rallied from $98 to $126 and the conflict entered its third month. Each escalation headline has produced a sharper write-down and the cumulative damage is beginning to show.
BTC is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Fernando Lillo, director of the exchange Zoomex, said in a note that any break above $80,000 requires the war premium to relax.
“Bitcoin is trying to break the key level of $80,000, which would require a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East and, as a result, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,” he said. “One is impossible without the other, and the US administration’s plans for a longer naval blockade of Iran are becoming a real obstacle.”
Lillo flagged a possible scenario in which the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days, citing it as a response to “positive steps by Iran” to create an emergency meeting.
“A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated inflow of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move towards $85,000.”
