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That’s how Holger Zschaeptiz, one of the most followed macro commentators on X, reacted after the yield on the 30-year US Treasury (Treasury) rose to 5% early today, hitting the highest since July 2025. This level has only been tested twice over the past two decades.
His reaction also sums up the sentiment of several crypto analysts who see rising interest rates as a headwind for bitcoin the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and a macro asset.
“At this point the dynamic is simple. As long as the yield remains attractive and [Fed’s monetary policy] remains tight, capital has a real alternative to risk. This continues to pressure assets like crypto, depending on liquidity and momentum,” said Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, in an email to CoinDesk. sFOX is a San Francisco-based cryptocurrency prime dealer and trading platform designed for institutional investors, hedge funds and corporates.
Bitcoin is already under pressure along with a rise in the dollar index (DXY). At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $75,670, down 2% in 24 hours, and the DXY hovered above 99, extending Wednesday’s 0.5% gain.
Here’s why rising bond yields typically hurt BTC and other risk assets. When the US government needs to borrow money, it issues bonds, and the return on those bonds is the annual return earned by the bond investors. So when interest rates rise, bonds become more attractive. A 30-year Treasury yielding 5% is an almost risk-free return.
Therefore, every dollar sitting in bitcoin is a dollar not earning that 5% dividend. This trade-off typically leads to capital rotation out of non-returning risk assets such as bitcoin and other risky assets such as technology stocks. Rising interest rates also typically weigh on gold, which fell more than 1% to a one-month low of $4,540 on Wednesday and last changed hands near $4,564.
“Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [have] historically depressed crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange.
Note that the 30-year interest rate is not the only one to rise. The 10-year interest rate, which serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, is also elevated. Together, they point to financial tightening, a situation where borrowing money becomes expensive, which discourages the incentive to take risk in both the financial markets and the economy.
Bond yields are also rising in the UK and other parts of the world.
Bold dissenters are pushing back against easing
As expected, the central bank left the interest rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%. What was not expected was the internal discord. Three out of 12 voting officials pushed back against loose language in the statement, a development that has caught markets off guard.
This has pushed up expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, which is reflected in bond yields.
“The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady wasn’t that shocking, but the three dissenters calling for a strike on any easing guidance threw a bucket of ice at the market pivot. It’s a classic hawkish signal, and since Bitcoin is usually an indicator of risk, Bitcoin is feeling it,” said Matt Mena, senior researcher at crypto anshare, crypto email.
ING characterized the so-called hawkish dissent by three officials as a warning shot aimed at incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s pick to replace outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell. “They may want to make it clear that they will not be easily swayed by his way of thinking that interest rates can eventually be lowered,” ING analysts said.
Interestingly, the policy statement released on Wednesday contained no clear bias against easing, reinforcing the message that the Fed is in no rush to pivot.
Oil rally lifts inflation expectations
The increase in bond yields is not just about the Fed. Early Thursday, oil prices rose to their highest since 2022, with Brent briefly topping $125 a barrel after Trump considered extending the blockade of Iranian ports. Also, oil prices have been elevated, and have largely hovered between $80 and $120 since the Iran war began in late February.
As a result, energy prices are rising at gas stations, pushing long-term inflation expectations higher, as CoinDesk noted earlier this week.
All of this pushes yields higher.
“Inflation is not convincingly back to target and the Fed is not signaling a shift in the near term. Markets may want clarity on cuts, but the Fed is not giving yet. Until that changes, flows will continue to favor yield and safety over volatility. For crypto, this means the macro backdrop remains a headwind, not a tailwind,” Pires said.
