Bitcoin likely has further downside ahead before the current bear market runs its course, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.
Thielen’s call centers on the recent strength of the US dollar, which historically acts as a headwind for bitcoin. The outlook has been boosted by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Markets are increasingly debating whether the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on assets.
Still, Thielen does not expect the downturn to last indefinitely.
Three separate indicators — global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns — all point to a potential market low between late August and October.
A model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which Thielen said correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to the end of August as the next key inflection date. Seasonal patterns also suggest that September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger results in October.
