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The US men’s national team’s path to a World Cup title just got a little bit clearer.
According to The Athletic, there is now a greater than 99% chance that the USA will face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 16 next week following the latter’s 3-1 win over Qatar on Wednesday.
After winning Group D last week, the USA faced third place in another group – Bosnia and Herzegovina’s win took third place in Group B and thus an all but confirmed date with the Stars and Stripes.
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Folarin Balogun of the United States celebrates the second goal with teammates in Inglewood, Calif., on June 12, 2026, during the FIFA World Cup Group D match against Paraguay. (Gary Vasquez/Imagn Images)
The outlet notes that two other countries, Senegal and Austria, each have less than a 1% chance of meeting the United States to start the knockout stage.
A draw would have opened up several other options, but instead the US may have gotten the best-case scenario. Bosnia and Herzegovina is the 62nd-ranked FIFA program, while the United States is 14th. Meanwhile, Qatar was eliminated with the loss.
Before getting there, however, the USA must face Turkey to round out group play. But with the USA already winning the group and Türkiye already eliminated, the game is basically nothing more than a game.
Christian Pulisic of the United States celebrates with teammates their first goal, an own goal scored by Damian Bobadilla of Paraguay on June 12, 2026 in Inglewood, California. (Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn Images)
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At the risk of a jinx, the schedule plays quite nicely for the Americans. If the U.S. advances to the Round of 16, it will face either the Group G winner or another third-place finisher. Of all the possible opponents in that round, only Belgium currently needs a win and help to win Group G, placed ahead of the USA, and hardly – Belgium are number 10 in the world.
The USA is one of the hotter teams in this World Cup, having scored six goals in two games. It is already tied in the group stage, even with a game to play.
The Americans opened the World Cup with a 4-1 win over Paraguay and followed it up with a 2-0 win over Australia to clinch their trip to the Round of 32. Team US won the group as Paraguay defeated Türkiye later in the evening.
Team USA celebrates a goal against Paraguay in a 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Photos)
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The victories marked the first time the US men’s national team won back-to-back World Cup games since the inaugural event in 1930.
The game against Türkiye starts at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, and the game against Bosnia and Herzegovina will likely be next Wednesday in the Bay Area.
