Bitcoin has cut a relief bounce after plunging below $60,000 on Friday, but a bounce and a bullish revival are two very different things. The latter depends, according to analysts, on a few important price levels.
“The market has become oversold enough for sharp relief hikes, especially if inflation data slows and ETF outflows are slow,” analysts at HEX Trust said in an email. “But the difference between an emergency meeting and regime change is acceptance … BTC needs [to retake] $79,000-$80,000.”
In other words, anything below $80,000 would be seen as a corrective bounce within the broader bear market that began last year. Only one step beyond that would signal the beginning of a new advance.
Their stance may be overly cautious, according to some observers.
“Technically, a rally up to $68,000 could be seen as a recovery from the downward momentum seen between May 11 and June 5,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, hinting at a lower price level that could hit the bulls.
A rally even to these levels depends on ETF flows and macro factors. The 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the US have processed redemptions over $5 billion in the past four weeks. On Monday, investors raised another $91 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
These outflows must meaningfully reverse for the bitcoin price to gain upward momentum. In addition, Wednesday’s US inflation data may have to come in softer than expected, easing concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates. The data is expected to show that the cost of living topped out at 4% in May, well above the Fed’s target of 2%.
“The constructive path is contingent: inflation softens, government yields stabilize, AI stocks stop de-risking, BTC/ETH ETF outflows slow, and the market regains key technical levels. Until then, the conclusion is deliberately simple: During the retracement, there is no regime change,” Hex Trust said. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin’s hourly price swings in candlestick format, along with the MACD histogram in the lower pane, which shows trend changes and strength.
Prices are currently trading close to a trendline, which represents the mini-bounce from Friday’s low. A break of this trend line would mark the end of the rally and open the way for a potential test of recent lows.
The negative MACD histogram suggests that the bearish momentum is strong, which means that the trendline support may not last long.
