Bitcoins The recent rally towards $80,000 is showing signs of strain, with low trading volume and muted derivatives activity raising questions about how sustainable the rally can be.
In a weekly report, 10x Research head Markus Thielen pointed to a disconnect between price action and underlying market participation. “Bitcoin rose 4.7% over the past week, but the accompanying data tells a cautious story beneath the surface,” he wrote.
Trading volume has fallen significantly. Bitcoin’s weekly volume came in 17% below average, while ether (ETH) volume fell 20%. At the same time, funding rates – a measure of leveraged positioning – remain deeply negative. “The funding rate fell 6.8% to the 3rd percentile and volume collapsed 33% to the 4th percentile,” Thielen said, adding that the increase “was driven by spot buying or short covering rather than leveraged long conviction.”
That distinction matters. Spot purchases, often associated with institutional demand, tend to be more stable but less explosive than leveraged trades. It also leaves the market without the kind of momentum typically seen in strong bull runs.
Institutional flows have been a bright spot. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows, helping to push total April inflows to $2.5 billion. Bitcoin dominance has also increased to 60%, and signal capital is concentrated in the largest cryptocurrency rather than spread throughout the market.
Still, Thielen warned that the structure of the rally remains fragile. “The market has shifted from a more actively traded environment to one where participants are largely on the sidelines,” he wrote, describing a “low-funding, low-volume regime that historically reflects hesitation rather than momentum.”
Options markets reinforce this view. Volatility has fallen into the lower quartile of its historical range, and traders are pricing in relatively modest price swings in the coming week. “The market is pricing in a relatively calm environment,” the report noted, even as sentiment gauges approach elevated levels.
Ethereum paints a similar picture, albeit with even weaker participation. Volumes are down more than 50% and derivatives positioning shows limited risk appetite. “The volume implosion points to a market where conviction remains low and participants are largely disengaged,” Thielen said.
Despite these signals, the setup is not outright bearish. With limited leveraged long positions, the risk of forced liquidations on the downside is reduced. “The risk/reward in the near term is asymmetric to the upside if a catalyst emerges,” Thielen wrote.
That catalyst may come from outside the crypto space. The report highlights macroeconomic developments as the key factor that could determine the direction in the coming days. So far, bitcoin’s rally appears to be intact, but without stronger participation, it may be difficult to sustain unless broader market conditions provide support.
