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I took two losses yesterday and both were on coinflip games. I acknowledged that in both articles, and unfortunately we couldn’t get the games to jump our way. None of the plays were a loss or bad picks. The teams just didn’t get the wins that I expected them to get. Instead, we lost both games 3-2. Let’s try to avoid that fate here as we battle the Phillies and Marlins.
The Philadelphia Phillies seem to have cooled off a bit after their hot stretch. They are not playing badly by any means, but they are just not quite as successful as they had been. In July, they are just 9-12 and have lost five of their last six games. Maybe they just need to find a groove after the All-Star Break because they have gone 3-7 in the second half. Two of those wins have come in games that Christopher Sanchez has started.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola throws the rosin bag during the third inning of a baseball game against the Miami Marlins, Sunday, July 9, 2023, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
The Phillies have a bit of a problem with their rotation. Overall, the team has a 4.25 ERA, and that’s with Sanchez and Zach Wheeler owning a sub-three ERA. Today they send out Aaron Nola, who has struggled quite a bit this season. For the year, Nola is just 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He has 112 strikeouts this season, which is good for just over one strikeout per game. inning. He’s also been a little better on the road, but still has a 5.06 ERA. Arguably his best outing of the season came against the Marlins, going six innings, allowing five hits and no runs. Overall, though, the Marlins are hitting .300 against him in 40 at-bats.
Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara pitches during the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California on April 29, 2026. (Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn Images)
The Miami Marlins are now just under .500, but are still making good progress this year. The All-Star Break proved to be a problem for the team because since returning to action, the Marlins are just 1-9, being swept in each of the first three series after the break. They won yesterday to snap the streak and I think this team is susceptible to bad stretches considering they are young and figuring things out. However, there seems to be some good talent on the roster.
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I haven’t mentioned what they will do at the trade deadline because this latest streak may have changed them from buyers to sellers. That means this could be the last start for Sandy Alcantara. This has been a bit of a mixed season for Alcantara. For the year, he is 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. However, he owns a 3.26 home ERA, so Miami should feel comfortable with him on the mound. He has allowed just 24 earned runs at home, and 13 of those came in two starts. He faced the Phillies earlier this year and allowed two earned runs in six innings of work.
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning at loanDepot Park in Miami, Fla., on April 7, 2026. (Rhona Wise/Imagn Images)
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I like the Marlins’ chances tonight to win another game. The Phillies haven’t played great baseball, and Nola hasn’t had the year to consider him a shortstop. But the thing is, the Marlins might be playing even worse baseball. Maybe it was a bad stretch and they will be fine. I’ll be rooting for Miami in this one. I also like Alcantara recording over 17.5 outs a game, but at -163 you can find less juicy options.
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MARLINS PITCHER JANSON JUNK’S SCORELESS STREAK MAKES MIAMI THE SELECT AGAINST STRUGGLING AARON NOLA
