Prediction markets are shifting from one-off bets tied to major events to platforms driven by daily user engagement, according to a new report from Bitget Wallet in collaboration with Polymarket.
Trade volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, but the report points to a deeper change in behavior. Based on activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are returning more often and participating across a wider range of markets, from crypto to sports to politics.
The data suggests that growth is driven by frequency rather than trade size. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign that the market remains dominated by retail players. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users engage in smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeatable actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet’s CEO. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting point. However, as users become more active, participation is shifting towards markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this development as a structural change. Prediction markets are no longer solely driven by spikes around major events like elections. Instead, they become continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities.
“As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution is becoming as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We’re seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”
That shift also changes how those markets are used. Prices increasingly reflect real-time expectations about macroeconomic trends, politics and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
Growth has accelerated rapidly. Monthly trading volume has increased from around $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus shifts to access and ease of use. Wallets are emerging as key entry points that help users discover markets and interact with them in real time.
