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In a World Cup semi-final like this, there is so much to unpack. I’ve already written about the historical, emotional and psychological aspects of England’s World Cup match against Argentina, so I’ll also delve into the tactical elements of this highly anticipated semi-final.
On paper, and based on what I’ve seen from both sides of this tournament so far, the similarities may be stronger than the differences. And while I think the journey for the Three Lions has been tougher (arguably a tougher group, a hostile, altitude-defying win against Mexico just before facing Miami’s heat and humidity amid Erling Haaland’s Norway), the fact is that very little separates these two sides. They are two giants of the game who have shown examples of their genius and their vulnerable state.
There is also the overall record as England dominate in this area, having lost just twice from their 14 matches against Argentina. But one of those losses was in the dramatic 1986 match to Diego Maradona’s “Hand of God” and his “Goal of the Century”. Then there was the 1998 result – which saw David Beckham sent off for kicking Diego Simeone – which ended in a draw after extra time but resulted in an England loss on penalties.
The fact is, this one is hard to predict. It’s a contradiction because of a sense of familiarity because of the rivalry, but there’s also detachment because they haven’t met at the World Cup in 24 years.
Let’s also remember that England have never faced Lionel Messi – and that’s a statistic that lives on in itself. Stopping him is gambling on one’s own destiny, so I won’t even try to tell you how Thomas Tuchel plans to do the near-impossible, especially when England have never even tried to do it.
In terms of parallels, let’s focus on the individual side of things and the World Cup superstars, as there is a lot of reliance on them. Both have high-octane, attacking options that contribute significantly higher than anyone else.
For England, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane each have six goals, making it the first time in men’s World Cup history that a team has had two players score six or more goals in the same tournament. England have scored 13 goals in total, 12 of them from the aforementioned Kane and Bellingham, so the reliance on both is monumental.
But the same can be said about Argentina and Lionel Messi. La Albiceleste have 17 goals in the competition, more than any other team and one short of their record of 18, which was achieved back in 1930. But eight of those aforementioned 17 goals have come from Messi. Along with Kylian Mbappé, Messi became the second player on record (since 1966) to earn 10 or more assists in more than one World Cup.
But I think at the end of the day this game will be decided in two areas: midfield and on the flanks. Declan Rice and Eliot Anderson’s battle with Leandro Paredes and Enzo Fernández’s line will test stealth and momentum from the middle, where much of the action will take place.
And wide out? Argentina are a very narrow team and winger Anthony Gordon, who attempted more dribbles (10) against Norway than any English player since Darius Vassell in 2002 (per Opta), could have another strong day against right-back Nahuel Molina. More so on the other side – whether it’s Noni Madueke or his Arsenal teammate Bukayo Saka – against 33-year-old left-back Nicolás Tagliafico. Lionel Scaloni must surely find a place for defensive midfielder Nico González.
Anthony Gordon will help England attack the flanks. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
England should have most of the possession and I think it’s important for Argentina to use it wisely when they have the ball. Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, excellent with direct, long passes, will once again be needed to find attacking stars such as Julián Alvarez, Messi, Thiago Almada and Lautaro Martínez.
Argentina need players like Julian Alvarez to continue to step in to help Lionel Messi. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
But all in all, we know that this is a game that will go a long way to replacing tactics or analytical thinking. This is a match made of emotion and steely determination. There will be situations where the actual game plan can determine a conclusion and I think on paper England have enough to win this one.
This is not a match written on paper. It is carved out on the field of blood, sweat and undying effort.
From the moment the first whistle blows, therefore, we can throw everything out the window and just wonder about a true battle where we do not know the outcome until we find out the answer to the only true, remaining question: who is willing to sacrifice everything for a chance at glory? We’ll have to wait and see.
