XRP holders are on average more underwater than they’ve ever been, according to onchain data, which some traders are treating as a contrarian floor signal.
The reading comes from MVRV, or market value to realized value, a ratio that compares XRP’s price to the average price its supply last moved to.
When it sits below zero, the typical holder bears a loss. XRP’s 30-day MVRV is around -45% and its 365-day version around -47%, so both recent buyers and those who have held for a year are deep in the red.
Combined, the two are at their lowest in XRP’s history, research firm Santiment said in a Friday note.
It describes a capitulation, the phase where holders sit on steep unrealized losses and weaker hands sell out to those willing to absorb the coins. Santiment is careful to call this a risk-reward point rather than a price call.
“The best setups often emerge when the crowd is feeling maximum pain,” the firm wrote, stating that so much downside has already been taken that adding here carries less risk than usual, while noting that the price could still fall further if the broader market weakens.
XRP has rallied, although this reading remains depressed. The token has risen about 8% over seven days to about $1.14, per CoinDesk data, among the week’s strongest majors.
